Capital asset pricing model (CAPM)

The capital asset pricing model has been widely used for many years by the global financial services industry to try and predict the returns you should expect from a stock.

The capital asset pricing model has been widely used for many years by the global financial services industry to try and predict the returns you should expect from a stock.

If a stock offers a return above that predicted by CAPM you should buy it, and vice versa. The starting point for a stock's expected return is the minimum 'risk free' return an investor should expect from medium-dated AAA government bonds, say 5%. You then add a premium, because stocks in general are riskier than bonds.

This figure is heavily debated, but let's say it is 3%. Now you adjust that extra premium for a stock's specific beta, say 1.2. So the expected CAPM return here would be 8.6% (5% + (3% x 1.2)). If you expect the stock you are reviewing to deliver, say, a 10% annual return, then it's a buy, says CAPM.

See Tim Bennett's video tutorial: Warning: the City's formula for pricing shares is bust.

Recommended

Modern monetary theory (MMT)
Glossary

Modern monetary theory (MMT)

Modern Monetary theory, or MMT, has become popular on the left, both in the UK and abroad. (Wags say that it stands for "magic money tree".) 
21 Sep 2020
Price to sales ratio
Glossary

Price to sales ratio

A company's market cap divided by the company's annual sales (or revenue) gives us the price/sales ratio.
28 Aug 2020
Too embarrassed to ask: what is a p/e ratio?
Too embarrassed to ask

Too embarrassed to ask: what is a p/e ratio?

Find out how to use the price/earnings ratio (p/e ratio for short) – a useful starting place for investors looking to value a company.
26 Aug 2020
Stock split
Glossary

Stock split

A stock split increases the number of a corporation's issued shares by dividing each existing share.
21 Aug 2020

Most Popular

Will a second wave of Covid lead to another stockmarket crash?
Stockmarkets

Will a second wave of Covid lead to another stockmarket crash?

Can we expect to see another lockdown like in March, and what will that mean for your money? John Stepek explains.
18 Sep 2020
Here’s why you really should own at least some bitcoin
Bitcoin

Here’s why you really should own at least some bitcoin

While bitcoin is having a quiet year – at least in relative terms – its potential to become the default cash system for the internet is undiminished, …
16 Sep 2020
James Ferguson: How bad data is driving fear of a second wave of Covid-19
UK Economy

James Ferguson: How bad data is driving fear of a second wave of Covid-19

Merryn and John talk to MoneyWeek regular James Ferguson about the rise in infections in coronavirus and what the data is really telling us.
17 Sep 2020