Britain gained full access to the CPTPP, the huge Pacific free-trade zone, last week after Canada's ratification. It is by far the most significant trade deal that Britain has been able to secure since leaving the EU. Though, with the bond markets in meltdown, the cost of Britain's debt starting to soar, and the economy sliding closer to recession, it is perhaps not surprising that this piece of positive news did not get much attention.
The CPTPP – or Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, to give it its full, if slightly cumbersome name – is a free-trade zone that covers 12 countries across Asia and the Americas, including Canada, Japan, Mexico, Australia and Malaysia. It became fully operational on 1 September. Our exporters now have full, tariff-free access to its 600 million consumers. The Treasury estimates the deal could deliver a £2 billion boost to the economy. It could be far larger: the CPTPP represents a vast market that is growing at a rapid rate.
The problem is that at precisely the same time that the CPTPP comes fully into effect, the government is talking about a “reset” with the EU. Prime minister Andy Burnham has talked constantly about getting closer to the EU, and senior ministers have come out in support of joining the customs union. But any closer relationship would, in effect, mean leaving the CPTPP. Brussels would demand full control of our trade policy as part of any deal, and membership of the customs union would mean that the EU would set Britain's tariffs again, including levies on anything we buy from the Pacific. The two trade deals are incompatible.
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It would surely be crazy to choose Europe over Asia. Europe is a larger overall economy, it is a lot closer, and it still accounts for more than 40% of British exports. But we already have tariff-free access to the EU's market through our existing agreement. For growth, which is what really matters, the Pacific bloc is far more important than the European one.
To start with, it is rising in significance, while Europe is steadily declining. At the start of the century, the EU accounted for 25% of global output. Today it is down to 15%. By contrast, the Pacific, on both Asian and American coasts, has been growing far faster. Right now, the CPTPP is only £4 trillion behind the EU, measured by total GDP. Within a decade, the Pacific bloc will have overtaken the EU. That makes it a far more lucrative market.
The CPTPP is what the EU might have been
Next, the legal framework of the CPTPP is far superior. Members have full access to each market within the bloc based on recognition of each other's standards. Subject to local vetoes, if your product is on sale in Japan and meets all its safety and regulatory standards, then you can sell it in Mexico or Australia, and vice versa. It acknowledges that there is no need for an extra layer of bureaucracy. More importantly, there is none of the paraphernalia of an emerging superstate. There is no CPTPP flag, or anthem, or foreign minister strutting about on the world stage. There is no freedom of movement. It is just a simple free-trade zone that allows goods and services to be sold, and without tariffs, across a huge range of territories – akin to what the EU was back when it was just the Common Market.
Finally, it is easier to do business with. When an economy is stuck with zero growth, as Italy, France, and now Germany are, there are very few commercial opportunities. Not much is getting built, companies are not investing and consumers don't have much money to spend. By contrast, when it is growing rapidly, as most of the Pacific is, lots of possibilities open up. People are ready to sign deals because they need stuff. British firms will find it far easier to grow their order books in Australia, Chile or Malaysia than they will in Portugal, Greece or Austria.
So long as the PM keeps talking about a reset with the EU, there is no point in British businesses embracing the opportunities offered by the Pacific deal. The government should make it clear that Britain's main trading bloc is the CPTPP and that we have no interest in anything other than our existing trade deal with Brussels – and then seize the opportunities the CPTPP offers.
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