Are there upsides to Covid-19? It’s hard to think about 2020 in these terms. The pandemic has left us with tens of thousands dead. The policies put in place to contain it have cost us huge numbers of jobs and businesses (with more misery to come). They have curtailed our freedom; suspended our democracy; caused an educational crisis; and revealed, all too clearly, that many of our government processes and our health system are woefully inadequate in times of crisis. They have also left us with eye-wateringly high levels of public debt – to say nothing of the trying conversations about how the wealth of “the rich” must be confiscated to pay it off that tend to come with rises in public debt. Not much to like there at all.
But if we delve behind these very grey clouds, we can see a few silver linings. The economic position is not quite as bad as you might think. UK unemployment has remained reasonably low at just under 5% – only a percentage point higher than last year. There are huge positives to the UK’s flexible labour market in times of sudden change. It also turns out that if you haven’t lost your job, you are very likely to be better off (financially at least) today than you were this time last year. What with never being allowed to leave the house, plus the various government support schemes on the go, Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane estimates that UK households have built up “excess savings” of around £100bn. That’s real money – and should, he says, lead to the type of spending spree that helps the economy bounce back rather faster than most expect. There is “plenty of pent up demand still in the tank”.
At the same time, house prices and stockmarkets have recovered at stunning speed: most Sipps and Isas (if they have not been fiddled with too much) will be evens or even up on the year. Not everyone thinks that can last, given how high valuations look. But for now at least it’s going to be hard for anyone with a portfolio that has included US tech stocks for the last nine months to feel particularly poor.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
There’s more. In our latest podcast I talk to economist Julian Jessop. He notes that the pandemic has done at least two useful things in the UK. It has weeded out some companies that were on their way out anyway. And it has offered others the incentive (and in some cases the cover) to restructure and refocus in a way that previously might have taken them years. It has also effectively given every member of the working population a crash course in technology. Combine that with the long-term efficiencies of more people working from home a day or two a week and might we finally get the productivity revolution we have been waiting for in the UK for a decade? Maybe.
Two final things. First, Covid-19 has reminded us that companies don’t automatically behave badly (many stores have repaid their business rates holiday windfalls). Second, it has reminded us that free markets are a wonderful thing. Companies who can get their hands on the cash they need for investment; who know that they have a ready market, and who have a supportive regulatory environment to work within, can do almost anything. The proof is in the vaccine.
-
8 of the best converted properties for sale nowThe best converted properties for sale – from an apartment in the former Hartley’s Jam factory on London’s Southbank, to a converted 18th-century mill in Itteringham, Norfolk
-
How taking a two-year career break could leave a £26k hole in your pensionCareer breaks are increasingly common but it is important to take steps to protect your pension, as gaps compound over time
-
Inflation may be slipping but there is still plenty of misery aheadEditor's letter Inflation may be a little lower than last month as the prices of petrol and diesel fall back, but it remains structural and long-term, says Merryn Somerset Webb. And there are no painless solutions.
-
Beat the cost of living crisis – go on holidayEditor's letter As inflation rages, energy bills soar and the pound tanks, what’s a good way to save money this winter? Go on holiday, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
How capitalism has been undermined by poor governanceEditor's letter Capitalism’s “ruthless efficiency” has been undermined by poor governance, a lack of competition and central banks’ over-enthusiastic money printing, says Andrew Van Sickle.
-
The biggest change in the last 17 years – the death of the “Greenspan put”Editor's letter Since I joined MoneyWeek 17 years ago, says John Stepek, we’ve seen a global financial crisis, a eurozone sovereign debt crisis , several Chinese growth scares, a global pandemic, and a land war in Europe. But the biggest change is the death of the “Greenspan put”.
-
Things won't just return to normal – that's not how inflation worksEditor's letter You might think that, if inflation is indeed “transitory”, we just need to wait and everything will return to “normal”. But this is a grave misunderstanding of how inflation works, says John Stepek.
-
The public may have reached its limit for tax risesEditor's letter The UK tax burden is now at a 70-year high. And, while there may be some reason to hold off on cuts right now, taxes are too high because the state tries to do too much. Perhaps it should do less, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
Things may look bad – but they’re not that badEditor's letter The UK faces plenty of problems, says John Stepek. But things may not be as bad as they look. Our debt to GDP ratio is lower than many other major economies, and high employment means a healthy tax take. That gives the new chancellor room to cut taxes so people can keep more of their own money.
-
Car hire and the strangeness of the post-pandemic economyEditor's letter A global shortage of hire cars and unusually high hotel occupancy rates sum up the post-pandemic global economy in a nutshell, says Merryn Somerset Webb, with enhanced demand meeting restricted supply.
