Grand Theft Auto 6 (GTA 6) is expected to release in Q3/Q4 this year. It’s been over 10 years in the making and dubbed as one of the biggest entertainment launches in history. It is expected to rake in billions for Take Two Interactive Software (TTwo), the American company behind GTA publisher Rockstar Games.
Gaming stocks have disappeared off the radar when it comes to the most popular stocks with the industry hitting a bit of a slump after its pandemic growth subsided.
But, there are expectations that the release of GTA 6 could change TTwo’s (NASDAQ:TTWO) fortune and cause a ripple effect for other gaming publishers.
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After all, gamers have waited over a decade for the release of GTA 6, which will come with more capabilities, realism and use of artificial intelligence. Investors have already been keeping a close eye on AI stocks, such as Nvidia, which have been powering gaming technology.
GTA 6 is expected to fetch $1 billion in pre-orders alone and over $3 billion in the first 12 months of launching, according to analysts at DFC Intelligence.
TTwo has not yet confirmed an exact date, but the company will release its quarterly earnings today (6 February) and both gamers and investors are expecting an announcement on a GTA 6 release date - or at the very least confirmation that it is on track for 2025.
TTwo - is it a good bet for investors?
TTwo’s stock has already climbed 32% in the last six months on the expectation that GTA will take gaming and digital entertainment to a whole new level.
Sam North, market analyst at eToro, told MoneyWeek: “For over a decade, gamers have been eagerly awaiting the next chapter in one of the biggest entertainment franchises of all time, Grand Theft Auto 6. With its release expected in 2025, excitement is building, and so are expectations for Take-Two Interactive.
“However, TTwo is under immense pressure to deliver. While last quarter’s revenue beat estimates, it still marked a year-on-year decline, and analysts expect only modest 3.8% revenue growth this quarter. At the same time, development costs are rising, and the broader gaming sector is facing headwinds, including declining consumer spending and increasing scrutiny over monetisation strategies.”
TTwo develops and publishes games mostly through Rockstar Games, 2K and Zynga.
“Despite TTwo’s strong track record, its reliance on major franchises like GTA and Red Dead Redemption creates risks. If GTA 6 fails to meet sky-high expectations, investor enthusiasm could quickly fade. The company's near $13 billion acquisition of Zynga was meant to diversify revenue streams, but results have been mixed so far. Meanwhile, TTwo’s all-time high stock price from 2020 looms large, leaving little room for new investors seeking upside,” said North.
The bear view at Morningstar is that: “Take Two lives and dies with Grand Theft Auto 6” - and if GTA 6 disappoints, “the stock will likely get crushed and the ability to invest in the future will be hindered”.
The bulls on the other hand believe GTA 6 will “ride the popularity of the 200 million-plus copies of GTA 5”. It is also likely to hugely profit from sales made via in-game purchasing.
What impact could GTA have on the gaming industry?
With the excitement building up for GTA 6 , something would have to go terribly wrong for it to not take off.
But if it is successful, other gaming stocks could benefit from its success. GTA 6 is expected to retail at around £82, and this higher price could see other gaming publishers boost their prices, too. It could also trigger a rise in digital entertainment generally.
“There’s no denying the cultural and financial impact GTA 6 could have. If the launch goes smoothly, it may not only lift TTWO but also provide a much-needed boost to the gaming sector, which has struggled since its 2020 peak” North said.
“Investors will also be watching Roblox’s earnings, which report before the open, as a potential barometer for broader gaming industry trends. Additionally, Electronic Arts recently missed revenue expectations with a 20.4% year-on-year decline, highlighting the challenges facing major publishers. With sentiment already running hot, any misstep could send TTwo shares tumbling—but if Take-Two delivers, it could cement its place as the dominant force in gaming once again.
“For what it's worth, analysts see a 10% upside on the stock, with a mean price target of $202 which would take us back up to its previous all-time highs. Can it make it there? Investors will hope so. Game on.”
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