Why the value of the US dollar is falling

The US dollar has hit a two-year low. Alex Rankine explains what's going on.

US dollar peeking from behind curtains
America’s global economic dominance is drawing to a close
(Image credit: © iStockphotos)

The US dollar has hit a two-year low as markets move firmly into “risk-on” mode. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s value against a basket of six major trading partners’ currencies, spiked during the March crisis as investors rushed into the traditional safe-haven of dollar assets. Yet massive central bank support and the prospect of a vaccine has since reversed the trend; the index has tumbled by 11% since 20 March. For the year to date the currency is down by more than 4% and this week hit its lowest level since April 2018. A pound currently buys about $1.33.

Despite the recent dip, it is the dollar’s prolonged strength that has been “one of the more monotonous motifs” of the last few years, says Buttonwood in The Economist. Analysts have repeatedly predicted an imminent reversal, only for the greenback to stay high and mighty. A persistently weaker dollar would be good news for emerging markets, where many debts are denominated in the currency. That would make servicing those loans cheaper in local currency terms, fuelling a “catch-up” rally in local shares.

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Markets editor

Alex is an investment writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2015. He has been the magazine’s markets editor since 2019. 

Alex has a passion for demystifying the often arcane world of finance for a general readership. While financial media tends to focus compulsively on the latest trend, the best opportunities can lie forgotten elsewhere. 

He is especially interested in European equities – where his fluent French helps him to cover the continent’s largest bourse – and emerging markets, where his experience living in Beijing, and conversational Chinese, prove useful. 

Hailing from Leeds, he studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at the University of Oxford. He also holds a Master of Public Health from the University of Manchester.