Look out investors - the lawyers are coming!
Soon, non-lawyers will be able to own British legal firms. Up to 60 firms may float on the stock exchange. Some would view this as a good opportunity to invest, but Tom Bulford doesn't see it that way.
There are plenty of good jokes about lawyers. Have you heard the one about the terrorist who hijacked a 747 full of lawyers? He threatened to release one every hour until his demands were met.
Or have you heard why lawyers are replacing rats as laboratory research animals? First, they are plentiful. Second, the lab assistants don't get so attached to them. And third, they will do things that you just can't get rats to do.
I think Charles Dickens had it right when he wrote of "the sequestered nooks of the legal profession, where writs are issued, judgments signed, declarations filed and numerous other ingenious machines put in motion for the torture and torment of His Majesty's liege subjects, and the comfort and emolument of the practitioners of the law".
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Well the story is that, next year, these leeches upon decent society are going to reinvent themselves - as an investment opportunity.
The Legal Services Act has decreed that people other than lawyers should be able to own British legal firms. As many as 60 firms are said to be thinking of floating on the stock exchange, according to newspaper reports.
The fanfares will soon be heard. Brokers, bankers and PR men have smelled the scent of fat fees. Investors will soon be rounded up, convinced that this is a great investment opportunity, cautioned that no serious diversified portfolio is complete without it, and marched to the payment counter.
But you should beware.
This has got all the makings of an investment opportunity that should be avoided at all costs. I will explain why.
How 'Tesco Law' will affect the legal profession - and its new investors
The forthcoming changes to the legal profession are the result of ten years of debate culminating in the Clementi Report. This recommended that the law should no longer be the exclusive province of lawyers. While all legal documents need to be just that - legal - Clementi judged that there was no reason why legal services should not be provided and marketed by others.
It was as a result of this judgment that the term 'Tesco Law' was coined. And, indeed, from next year we can look forward to certain basic legal services being offered by the likes of Tesco, the Co-Op and the AA.
The way it will work is that simple forms will be offered either in-store or, more likely, online. Customers will fill in the details as best they can. Then a qualified lawyer will simply rubber-stamp the final document, thereby making a considerable saving on the cost of these things today.
Faced with this prospect, high-street law firms that have made a cosy living from births, deaths and marriages will have to shape up or ship out.
Consolidation of this area of the legal profession is likely to be one of the investment themes of the next few years. Some of these firms will join together, close unwanted branches, share back-office functions and present a united brand.
Claim your special FREE report: 10 simple rules for maximising your penny share profits
- Receive the stock market wisdom of a top-level penny share expert
- Your essential guide to playing the small caps market
That is all very well, and probably long overdue. But cost-cutting alone does not make a good investment case. And the precedents for this type of operation are not auspicious.
Buy-and-build chains of estate agents and accountants have had mixed success at best on the stock market. And these were not faced with a challenge from the almighty supermarkets.
For the big legal firms the investment proposition will be rather different. There is a talk of some of the biggest firms raising capital on the stock market, but it is hard to understand why they should need it.
The fact is that legal firms, over time, are hardly short of money. Again various rationales will be put forward. Quoted legal firms will be able to offer share options to their junior staff. Capital will help them finance investment in IT and the establishment of overseas offices.
But the main issue is that, as partnerships, the profits are divvied up at the end of the year. They fund new yachts for the partners rather than re-investment into the business.
Why law firms will disappoint their shareholders
Comparisons are being made with the 'Big Bang' of 1985. That was when all of those stock broking and merchant banking firms abandoned their partnership models. Again, the precedents are discouraging.
Shares in City firms tend to move up and down with the stock market, and smart investors can make money from these gyrations. But as long-term investments they just don't stack up. In a good year, the fat bonuses paid to staff reduce the rewards that could otherwise go to shareholders. In bad years, there is nothing for anyone.
The bottom line is this: this type of 'people business' does not need capital. It does not need millions to fund development costs or build a factory. So it need not care what shareholders think or how to reward them.
These legal newcomers will not be getting my investment.
This article was first published in Tom Bulford's twice-weekly small-cap investment email The Penny Sleuth.
Sign up to Money Morning
Our team, led by award winning editors, is dedicated to delivering you the top news, analysis, and guides to help you manage your money, grow your investments and build wealth.
Tom worked as a fund manager in the City of London and in Hong Kong for over 20 years. As a director with Schroder Investment Management International he was responsible for £2 billion of foreign clients' money, and launched what became Argentina's largest mutual fund. Now working from his home in Oxfordshire, Tom Bulford helps private investors with his premium tipping newsletter, Red Hot Biotech Alert.
-
Christmas at Chatsworth: review of The Cavendish Hotel at Baslow
MoneyWeek Travel Matthew Partridge gets into the festive spirit at The Cavendish Hotel at Baslow and the Christmas market at Chatsworth
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
Tycoon Truong My Lan on death row over world’s biggest bank fraud
Property tycoon Truong My Lan has been found guilty of a corruption scandal that dwarfs Malaysia’s 1MDB fraud and Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto scam
By Jane Lewis Published
-
Somero: trading this overlooked bargain
Features Mechanical-screed maker Somero dominates its niche and is attractively valued. Matthew Partridge picks the best way to trade it.
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
How to find big profits in small companies
Cover Story The small- and micro-cap sectors are risky and volatile. But with careful research and patience, investors could make huge gains. Matthew Partridge explains how to find the market’s top tiddlers.
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
The hidden gems on Aim, London's junior market
Features Aim, London’s junior market, is risky – but you can find solid stocks at low prices. Scott Longley reports.
By Scott Longley Published
-
Is Aim finally coming of age?
Features The Aim market of mostly smaller companies has traditionally been seen as a bit of a backwater. Is it time to change that view? Matthew Partridge talks to Paul Latham and Richard Power of fund management company Octopus.
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
Three Aim-listed firms that will thrive in a post-Brexit world
Opinion Matt Tonge and Victoria Stevens of the Liontrust UK Smaller Companies Fund pick three Aim-listed firms that will survive Brexit turmoil.
By moneyweek Published
-
Fetch! The Chinese small-cap stocks to buy in the Year of the Dog
Opinion Each week, a professional investor tells us where she’d put her money. This week: Tiffany Hsiao of Matthews Asia selects three Chinese small-cap stocks with exciting potential.
By Tiffany Hsio Published
-
Small and mid-cap stocks with big potential
Opinion Professional investor Guy Anderson of the Mercantile Investment Trust selects three small and medium-sized firms with promising prospects that the market has missed.
By Guy Anderson Published
-
Get cheap, reliable growth from smaller companies
Features One of the most reliable long-term investment trends is the long-term outperformance of smaller companies over blue chips. Max King picks some of the best ways to buy into this growth.
By Max King Published