How to tell where the market is headed

If you're trying to guess the future direction of the US stock market, don't pore over the Fed's latest monetary policy statement. Look to the 10yr Treasury.

I'm not a big believer in government statistics. There are two reasons why First, I suspect the numbers can be fudged and finagled. Second, have you ever noticed how many times the economic numbers are constantly being revised? Truth be told, I trust my own eyes more than government figures.

I'll give you a prime example: The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. I find it pretty laughable that so many very smart people waste time painstakingly analyzing every word, comma and syllable in the Fed's monetary policy statements.

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