How to position yourself for deflation
In the battle between inflation and deflation, we may soon seen deflation gain the upper hand. And if that happens, how should you invest?
If we are right in believing that inflation is not the risk but deflation is, then short- and long-term interest rates are destined to remain low. Such a belief justifies our faith in long-dated UK gilts, though it must be said we hold these with a relatively tight stop loss. When everybody finally agrees that asset prices are in an irreversible decline, then investors will hunt out safe long-term fixed income investments and gilts will soar.
As deflation bites, the present unwillingness of banks to lend to other than undoubted households and businesses, will be magnified, the authorities will print money with impunity and the banks will mimic what Japan has done in similar circumstances; hoard money on their balance sheets, probably invested in government bonds.
Today, everybody says inflation is the problem because governments are printing so much money. But the economic conditions of unemployment, lack of wage growth, asset price weakness and above all else, dramatic over-capacity, means that inflation just can't gain traction.
MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
We quote from Martin Wolf's recent article "The latest consensus forecast for growth in the high-income countries of 2010 will be below potential yet this is also at a time when the admittedly uncertain estimate of output gaps (or excess capacity) are at extreme levels. For 2009 the OECD estimates these at 4.9% of potential GDP in the US, 5.4% in the UK, 5.5% in the Eurozone and 6.1% in Japan. risks of deflation are self-evident June's hysteria over rising yields on conventional bonds looks absurd."
The fear of inflation is probably deflation's strongest ally. Governments and their advisers are more concerned about printing too much money than too little so they won't print enough.
As the economy continues to struggle, central banks will be forced to maintain virtual zero interest rate policies and will only change that policy if inflation raises its head. As we reported a couple of issues ago, Japan has been running interest rates below 1% for about 15 years and still no end is in sight!
This article was written by Full Circle Asset Management, as published in the threesixty Newsletter on 17 July 2009
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
MoneyWeek is written by a team of experienced and award-winning journalists, plus expert columnists. As well as daily digital news and features, MoneyWeek also publishes a weekly magazine, covering investing and personal finance. From share tips, pensions, gold to practical investment tips - we provide a round-up to help you make money and keep it.
-
Michelin Key Hotels 2025: the top destinations in the world
The Michelin Keys have been awarded to spectacular hotels across the world. From Marlon Brando's private resort in Polynesia to a Bvlgari hotel in Tokyo, we look at some of the most extraordinary stays in 2025
-
MoneyWeek news quiz: How much could you get in car finance compensation?
The car finance scandal, inheritance tax, and house prices all made headlines over the past few days. Test your knowledge while reviewing this week’s top stories with MoneyWeek’s news quiz