How to profit from the rising dollar

With market sentiment wavering, the dollar rising again - up more than 3% on its January low. How can investors take advantage?

It's like 2008 all over again. At the height of the credit crisis, the dollar, the world's 'safe-haven' currency, rallied 35%. It then retreated in 2009 as riskier assets shot back up. Now, with market sentiment wavering, the DXY dollar index is rising again, and is up more than 3% on its January low. How can investors take advantage?

Currencies are always traded in pairs. So other currencies will fall as the dollar rises. But which should you bet against? Enter the euro. US GDP growth beat forecasts last week, with a 5.7% reading for the fourth quarter. That may not last, but it looks good compared to the eurozone, which is battling rising unemployment (now over 10%) and flat growth (0.4%). But the real issue is sovereign debt. In Greece, public debt is expected to exceed 100% of national output by 2011, says S&P. So the ratings agency has downgraded the country's debt rating twice in the last 12 months. And given that, against the dollar, the euro is still around 12% overvalued in purchasing power terms (this adjusts for differences in prices between countries), it is the best currency to short against the greenback.

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Theo Casey

Theo is a former financial writer and editor, having written for reputable titles such as Euromoney Institutional Investor and Redwood Publishing. He has also appeared on-screen with Al Jazeera, BBC and CNBC and on MoneyWeek Theo covered funds, share tips and stockmarkets. He also edited the country's oldest newsletter with Lord Rees-Mogg for four years. Theo now runs his own content marketing agency for financial companies, and he is a seasoned CISI-qualified investment adviser.