What diving dividends tell us about stocks

published 21 August 2009

Tumbling dividends have left investors "damned to give more than they get in return", says Jeremy Warner on Telegraph.co.uk.

In the first half of this year, UK-listed firm raised some £51bn in new capital, according to an analysis by share registration firm Capita Registrars. At the same time, they paid out just £28bn in dividends, down 10% on the same time last year. Such a gulf is "rare, if not unprecedented" "even in the recessions of the early 1980s and 1990s, it didn't happen".

Unsurprisingly, banks were the worst offenders; they accounted for most of the new equity raised, while their total dividend cut of 'only' 29% was propped up by relatively strong payouts from HSBC and Standard Chartered as RBS. Lloyds and Barclays dropped their dividends altogether.

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Now, with profits down and firms hoarding cash, "the pressure on dividends looks set to continue well into next year".

There might be a more positive way to look at this, says Lex in the FT. "If the economy is coming out of the bottom of the cycle, as the stockmarket rally would suggest, this fresh capital will act as a buffer to launch opportunities in a growing economy".

But with GDP still negative, mortgage lending tight and unemployment high, "this scenario seems remote". Boards "do not cut dividends lightly", so their recent actions suggest they are pessimistic about the outlook.

So investors should be cautious. "Diving head-first into shares of companies nervous about their own capital requirements might be as risky as backing England to win back the Ashes."