European stockmarkets: enjoy the rally while it lasts

The stockmarket rally is highly unlikely to mark the start of a long-term bull market. History shows that long periods of 'range trading' are typical after the initial slide and bounce.

Equities' recent rebound is highly unlikely to mark the start of a long-term bull market, as a note on pan-European stocks by Morgan Stanley points out this week. The bank's study of 19 previous major bear markets shows that long periods of 'range trading' are typical after the initial slide and rebound as "structural problems in the real economy" prevent a new sustainable bull run from getting going. It's likely to be a similar story this time.

One problem is that European governments will have to repair their lousy government finances in the next few years. Across the 15 western European EU members, the budget deficit is expected to hit 7.4% of GDP and government debt 82% of GDP in 2010. By comparison, the Stability and Growth Pact governing the eurozone limits budget deficits to 3%. A combination of tax hikes, spending cuts and more privatisations will be needed. In addition to fiscal tightening, both banks and household sectors will need to cut their debts over the next few years. These three long-term economic headwinds will hamper growth, creating a "stop-go, volatile" economic cycle and causing "range-bound markets for years to come".

Subscribe to MoneyWeek

Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Get 6 issues free
https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/mw70aro6gl1676370748.jpg

Sign up to Money Morning

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Sign up
MoneyWeek

MoneyWeek is written by a team of experienced and award-winning journalists, plus expert columnists. As well as daily digital news and features, MoneyWeek also publishes a weekly magazine, covering investing and personal finance. From share tips, pensions, gold to practical investment tips - we provide a round-up to help you make money and keep it.