Advertisement
Features

Betting on politics: how long has Boris Johnson got as PM?

Boris Johnson could well go down in history as the prime minister with the shortest term in office. Matthew Partridge looks at the odds.

Boris Johnson © Peter Summers/Getty Images

Boris Johnson © Peter Summers/Getty Images

When Boris Johnson became prime minister this summer, his place in the history books would have been preying on his mind. If the bookmakers are to be believed, he could well go down in history as the prime minister with the shortest term in office.

Originally, when the bookies started taking bets on his time in office you could get 3/1 (25%) on him setting a new record for brevity. Now the best that you can get is evens (50%) with Ladbrokes.

Advertisement - Article continues below

At the time of writing, Johnson has been in office for 77 days, which is 42 days less than the 119 day-stint by George Canning, our shortest-serving prime minister. He succeeded Lord Liverpool in April 1827 before dying in August of the same year.

This means that Johnson has to survive for just six more weeks in order to have lasted longer than Canning. Thanks to the requirement of the fixed- term Parliament act, there probably isn't enough time for him for call an election that he might end up losing.

This leaves the possibility of Johnson being removed by a vote of confidence. Indeed, there is a very real prospect that he could prompt Parliament into action by refusing to send a letter to the EU requesting an extension.

However, my guess is that he will back down (or even try to push through May's original deal with a few tweaks and renamings).

In any case, I'd put the chances of him being removed by the deadline at roughly 2/1 (33%), so I don't think that the odds available on him going offer any value.

Advertisement
Advertisement

Recommended

Visit/trading/600685/trading-catch-this-coach-company
Trading

Trading: catch this coach company

Bus and coach operator National Express has expanded into promising markets abroad – and it looks cheap
28 Jan 2020
Visit/520181/how-the-fear-of-death-affects-your-investment-process
Investment strategy

How the fear of death affects our investment processes

Many of our investment decisions are driven by one simple fact: the knowledge that, one day, we will be dead. Here, in an extract from his new book, J…
2 Jan 2020
Visit/520060/the-good-and-the-bad-investments-of-2010s
Stockmarkets

The good investments of the 2010s – and the bad

John Stepek takes a look back on which investments did well and which did badly in the decade that’s about to come to an end.
26 Dec 2019
Visit/519858/how-long-can-the-good-times-roll
Economy

How long can the good times roll?

Despite all the doom and gloom that has dominated our headlines for most of 2019, Britain and most of the rest of the developing world is currently en…
19 Dec 2019

Most Popular

Visit/investments/investment-strategy/601387/how-john-maynard-keynes-learned-the-folly-of-market-timing
Investment strategy

How John Maynard Keynes learned the folly of market timing

In an extract from his book The Sceptical Investor, John Stepek explains how the great economist John Maynard Keynes came a cropper when he first star…
25 May 2020
Visit/investments/stockmarkets/emerging-markets/601362/a-new-lease-of-life-for-the-brics
Emerging markets

A new lease of life for the Brics

Emerging markets are having a surprisingly good crisis. Their long-predicted rise will now continue.
24 May 2020
Visit/investments/investment-strategy/601379/battling-volatility-the-benefits-of-an-active-manager
Sponsored

Battling volatility: The benefits of an active manager

SPONSORED CONTENT – Alastair Wilson, managing director of Close Brothers, on the advantages of active investing in times of crisis.
21 May 2020