It almost seems as if there have been more Brexit-related twists and turns in the last month than there have been in the entire period since the June 2016 referendum. Nothing illustrates this better than the perceived chance of a no-deal Brexit. Just a few weeks ago, many people believed that it was extremely likely. Now, thanks to the passage of the Benn bill through Parliament, instructing the government to ask for an extension to Article 50 unless a deal acceptable to Parliament can be passed through the House of Commons, it looks very unlikely.
The lesson of the last three and a half years is that you can never, ever, rule anything out, but I think that the chances of a no-deal Brexit this year are less than 5%. So I'd advise you to take Betfair's 1.23 against the possibility of no-deal Brexit in 2019. As the rules of the bet make clear, this bet pays off if Britain fails to leave the EU before the end of the year or if a Withdrawal Agreement is agreed (and ratified) before Britain leaves.
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