Betting on politics: Brexit bets

published 26 August 2019

Our impending departure from the EU continues to dominate the headlines and the eight Brexit-related markets on Betfair have attracted plenty of money. The market on the possibility of a no-deal Brexit this year has proved to be particularly popular, with £1.28m matched. You can get odds of 2.42 (41.2%) on it happening, as opposed to only 1.69 (59.7%) against.

The question of whether we will have another EU referendum this year has seen £1.18m wagered. You can get 26 (3.8%) on one taking place and 1.03 (97%) against. The exact date that Brexit will take place is also popular, with £346,000 matched. Punters are expecting the UK to leave by the end of the year, putting the chances of this happening at 1.69 (59.1%).

Interestingly, the next most popular outcome is no Brexit before 2022 at 4.8 (20.8%). Other alternatives are between January and June 2020 at 8.2 (12.2%), July-December 2020 at 22 (4.5%), January-June 2021 at 42 and July-December 2021 at48 (2.1%).

Subscribe to MoneyWeek

Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Get 6 issues free

https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/mw70aro6gl1676370748.jpg

Sign up to Money Morning

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

The other five markets are on the revocation of Article 50 (£208,000 matched), whether Brexit will happen on or before 31 October (£204,000), whether Brexit will happen before a general election (£108,000), whether there will be another no confidence vote (£45,000) and whether a meaningful vote will pass this year (£26,000). Some of these bets look attractive, but I'm going to wait until things look clearer before making a definite recommendation.

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri