Betting on politics: Brexit bets

The eight Brexit-related markets on Betfair have attracted plenty of money, says Matthew Partridge.

Our impending departure from the EU continues to dominate the headlines and the eight Brexit-related markets on Betfair have attracted plenty of money. The market on the possibility of a no-deal Brexit this year has proved to be particularly popular, with £1.28m matched. You can get odds of 2.42 (41.2%) on it happening, as opposed to only 1.69 (59.7%) against.

Advertisement - Article continues below

The question of whether we will have another EU referendum this year has seen £1.18m wagered. You can get 26 (3.8%) on one taking place and 1.03 (97%) against. The exact date that Brexit will take place is also popular, with £346,000 matched. Punters are expecting the UK to leave by the end of the year, putting the chances of this happening at 1.69 (59.1%).

Interestingly, the next most popular outcome is no Brexit before 2022 at 4.8 (20.8%). Other alternatives are between January and June 2020 at 8.2 (12.2%), July-December 2020 at 22 (4.5%), January-June 2021 at 42 and July-December 2021 at48 (2.1%).

The other five markets are on the revocation of Article 50 (£208,000 matched), whether Brexit will happen on or before 31 October (£204,000), whether Brexit will happen before a general election (£108,000), whether there will be another no confidence vote (£45,000) and whether a meaningful vote will pass this year (£26,000). Some of these bets look attractive, but I'm going to wait until things look clearer before making a definite recommendation.




Brexit begins: what do the UK and the EU want from a trade deal?

With Brexit now done, the trade talks can begin. But who wants what from a UK/EU trade deal, and how likely are they to get it?
3 Feb 2020
Investment strategy

How the fear of death affects our investment processes

Many of our investment decisions are driven by one simple fact: the knowledge that, one day, we will be dead. Here, in an extract from his new book, J…
2 Jan 2020

The good investments of the 2010s – and the bad

John Stepek takes a look back on which investments did well and which did badly in the decade that’s about to come to an end.
26 Dec 2019

How long can the good times roll?

Despite all the doom and gloom that has dominated our headlines for most of 2019, Britain and most of the rest of the developing world is currently en…
19 Dec 2019

Most Popular

Global Economy

The MoneyWeek Podcast: James Ferguson on the virus, the lockdown, and what comes next

Merryn talks to MoneyWeek regular James Ferguson of Macrostrategy Partnership about what's happened so far with the virus; whether the lockdown was th…
28 May 2020

As full lockdown ends, what are the risks for investors?

In the UK and elsewhere, people are gradually being let off the leash as the lockdown begins to end. John Stepek looks at what risks remain for invest…
29 May 2020

Can the UK housing market escape a slump?

The Bank of England is predicting a 16% slump in house prices.
29 May 2020