Betting on politics: Brexit bets
The eight Brexit-related markets on Betfair have attracted plenty of money, says Matthew Partridge.
Our impending departure from the EU continues to dominate the headlines and the eight Brexit-related markets on Betfair have attracted plenty of money. The market on the possibility of a no-deal Brexit this year has proved to be particularly popular, with £1.28m matched. You can get odds of 2.42 (41.2%) on it happening, as opposed to only 1.69 (59.7%) against.
The question of whether we will have another EU referendum this year has seen £1.18m wagered. You can get 26 (3.8%) on one taking place and 1.03 (97%) against. The exact date that Brexit will take place is also popular, with £346,000 matched. Punters are expecting the UK to leave by the end of the year, putting the chances of this happening at 1.69 (59.1%).
Interestingly, the next most popular outcome is no Brexit before 2022 at 4.8 (20.8%). Other alternatives are between January and June 2020 at 8.2 (12.2%), July-December 2020 at 22 (4.5%), January-June 2021 at 42 and July-December 2021 at48 (2.1%).
The other five markets are on the revocation of Article 50 (£208,000 matched), whether Brexit will happen on or before 31 October (£204,000), whether Brexit will happen before a general election (£108,000), whether there will be another no confidence vote (£45,000) and whether a meaningful vote will pass this year (£26,000). Some of these bets look attractive, but I'm going to wait until things look clearer before making a definite recommendation.