Betting on politics: Brexit bets
The eight Brexit-related markets on Betfair have attracted plenty of money, says Matthew Partridge.
Our impending departure from the EU continues to dominate the headlines and the eight Brexit-related markets on Betfair have attracted plenty of money. The market on the possibility of a no-deal Brexit this year has proved to be particularly popular, with £1.28m matched. You can get odds of 2.42 (41.2%) on it happening, as opposed to only 1.69 (59.7%) against.
The question of whether we will have another EU referendum this year has seen £1.18m wagered. You can get 26 (3.8%) on one taking place and 1.03 (97%) against. The exact date that Brexit will take place is also popular, with £346,000 matched. Punters are expecting the UK to leave by the end of the year, putting the chances of this happening at 1.69 (59.1%).
Interestingly, the next most popular outcome is no Brexit before 2022 at 4.8 (20.8%). Other alternatives are between January and June 2020 at 8.2 (12.2%), July-December 2020 at 22 (4.5%), January-June 2021 at 42 and July-December 2021 at48 (2.1%).
MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
The other five markets are on the revocation of Article 50 (£208,000 matched), whether Brexit will happen on or before 31 October (£204,000), whether Brexit will happen before a general election (£108,000), whether there will be another no confidence vote (£45,000) and whether a meaningful vote will pass this year (£26,000). Some of these bets look attractive, but I'm going to wait until things look clearer before making a definite recommendation.
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.

-
Steve Webb: The triple lock is there to do a job. I’m not embarrassed or ashamed of itThe triple lock means 13 million pensioners will now get an above-inflation state pension boost in April. While the rising cost of the policy has stirred controversy, Steve Webb, who served as pensions minister when it was introduced, argues the triple lock is vital and should stay. Webb speaks to Kalpana Fitzpatrick on the new episode of MoneyWeek Talks – out now.
-
How retirement pots risk running out 11 years early if inflation remains highPension savers could find their retirement income may not last as long as they anticipated over fears that inflation may not slow down