Advertisement
Features

Betting on politics: bets for the US presidency

Matthew Partridge weighs up the odds on the candidates for the Democratic Party nomination.

What with all the political turmoil in the UK, it's easy to forget that the US presidential election cycle is in full swing. It is still well over a year before the general election in November 2020, and it's six months before the first primary caucus next February, but the candidates for the Democratic nomination are campaigning vigorously. The next round of TV debates is only a fortnight away and there are rumours that many of the fringe candidates will drop out if they fail to do well enough in terms of polls and fundraising to earn the right to take part.

Advertisement - Article continues below

With 24 candidates officially running, even if half the field drops out, that still leaves an unprecedented number left in the contest. According to Betfair, the favourite, former vice-president Joe Biden has odds of 3.9, which gives him only an implied 25.6% chance of winning the nomination. The other leading candidates are Elizabeth Warren at 3.95 (25.3%), Bernie Sanders at 7.2 (13.9%), Kamala Harris at 7.6 (13.2%) and Pete Buttigieg at 7.5 (13.5%).

However, the best value to be found is on the outcome of the general election. Ladbrokes is offering bets on the number of electoral college votes Donald Trump will get. Since I think the eventual Democratic candidate will win comfortably, you should take the 8/1 (11.1%) on Trump getting less than 200 votes and the 3/1 (25%) on him getting between 200-249 for combined odds of 36.1%. To weight your bet properly you should put £6.93 on 200-249 and £3.07 on less than 200.

Advertisement
Advertisement

Recommended

How the fear of death affects our investment processes
Investment strategy

How the fear of death affects our investment processes

Many of our investment decisions are driven by one simple fact: the knowledge that, one day, we will be dead. Here, in an extract from his new book, J…
2 Jan 2020
The good investments of the 2010s – and the bad
Stockmarkets

The good investments of the 2010s – and the bad

John Stepek takes a look back on which investments did well and which did badly in the decade that’s about to come to an end.
26 Dec 2019
How long can the good times roll?
Economy

How long can the good times roll?

Despite all the doom and gloom that has dominated our headlines for most of 2019, Britain and most of the rest of the developing world is currently en…
19 Dec 2019
Why Wall Street has got the US economy wrong again
Economy

Why Wall Street has got the US economy wrong again

The hiring slowdown does not signal recession for the US economy. Growth is just moving down a gear, says Brian Pellegrini.
25 Oct 2019

Most Popular

Eagle Lightweight GT: the reincarnation of the E-type Jag
Toys and gadgets

Eagle Lightweight GT: the reincarnation of the E-type Jag

Jaguar’s classic E-type sports car has been reinvented for the modern age. The result – the Eagle Lightweight GT – is a thing of beauty.
7 Aug 2020
Platinum: the precious metal that looks set to play catch-up with silver and gold
Silver and other precious metals

Platinum: the precious metal that looks set to play catch-up with silver and gold

Gold and silver continue to soar, but there's still time to get in. And there's another precious metal that looks set to go on a bull run too, says Jo…
7 Aug 2020
UK house prices hit a new record high – can it last?
House prices

UK house prices hit a new record high – can it last?

Despite the pandemic, UK house prices have hit a new high. John Stepek looks at what’s driving the surge in prices, and what it means for house prices…
7 Aug 2020