Features

Betting on politics: impeaching the US president

Matthew Partridge looks at the betting odds of America's President Trump getting impeached.

944-Trump-634

Trump: heading for impeachment

With the Mueller report now published, it's a good time to look at what the betting exchanges are saying about President Donald Trump (pictured) and the odds that he will face impeachment. And for the moment it's looking bad for those who think that he'll be forced out of office within the next eight months.

While the main exit-date market on Betfair has seen a lot of activity, with a total of £1.3m wagered, you can now get 14.5 (6.9%) on Trump leaving office this year and only 1.07 (93.4%) on him surviving until at least next year.

Interestingly, punters are also very sceptical that he'll go the wayof President Richard Nixon, as you can get 4.7 (21.2%) that he'll be impeached during his first term in office and 1.23 (81.3%) on himnot being impeached. It's important to note that the rules of Betfair's market only requiresthe House of Representatives topass at least one count of impeachment, so punters clearly don't think that House speaker Nancy Pelosi will allow him to be impeached.

Betfair has also launched another market on Trump's exit date that extends until 2025. In this case, a 2021 exit date (the date he'd leave if he lost the next election) is currentlythe most favoured outcome at 2.06 (48.5%), followed by 2025 (the date he'd depart if he served a full second term) at 2.6 (38.4%). Of the irregular departure dates, 2020 has the shortest odds at 10.5 (9.5%). Of all the above bets, the one that I'd recommend is the 2.06 on him to depart in 2021.

Recommended

Are we heading for another bond market tantrum?
Government bonds

Are we heading for another bond market tantrum?

The last time the US central bank tried tightening the purse strings, the bond markets threw a tantrum. With yields now rising, could we be about to s…
25 Feb 2021
The US dollar’s rally will fade away
Currencies

The US dollar’s rally will fade away

The US dollar, having been widely tipped to fall this year, is up by about 1.2% so far against a basket of six major trading partners’ currencies. But…
12 Feb 2021
Will the China-US trade war continue?
Global Economy

Will the China-US trade war continue?

The White House still seems to be talking tough on China, but few people know how Joe Biden will handle the world’s second-biggest economy.
5 Feb 2021
3 February 1690: America’s first paper money is issued
This day in history

3 February 1690: America’s first paper money is issued

On this day in 1690, the Massachusetts colony began circulating the first paper money on North America, printed to finance England’s war against Franc…
3 Feb 2021

Most Popular

A beginner’s guide to bitcoin: what is bitcoin?
Bitcoin

A beginner’s guide to bitcoin: what is bitcoin?

As a completely novel concept for many people, bitcoin can take a little effort to get to grips with. In the first of a short series on the cryptocurr…
1 Mar 2021
A beginner’s guide to bitcoin: how to buy bitcoin
Bitcoin

A beginner’s guide to bitcoin: how to buy bitcoin

For the novice, buying bitcoin can be a daunting prospect. Here, Dominic Frisby outlines the process from start to finish.
2 Mar 2021
What is “yield curve control” and why is it coming to a central bank near you?
Government bonds

What is “yield curve control” and why is it coming to a central bank near you?

Central banks around the world are determined not to let interest rates go up too quickly or by too much – a practice known as “yield curve control”. …
1 Mar 2021