Features

Betting on politics: impeaching the US president

Matthew Partridge looks at the betting odds of America's President Trump getting impeached.

944-Trump-634

Trump: heading for impeachment

2019 Getty Images

With the Mueller report now published, it's a good time to look at what the betting exchanges are saying about President Donald Trump (pictured) and the odds that he will face impeachment. And for the moment it's looking bad for those who think that he'll be forced out of office within the next eight months.

While the main exit-date market on Betfair has seen a lot of activity, with a total of £1.3m wagered, you can now get 14.5 (6.9%) on Trump leaving office this year and only 1.07 (93.4%) on him surviving until at least next year.

Interestingly, punters are also very sceptical that he'll go the wayof President Richard Nixon, as you can get 4.7 (21.2%) that he'll be impeached during his first term in office and 1.23 (81.3%) on himnot being impeached. It's important to note that the rules of Betfair's market only requiresthe House of Representatives topass at least one count of impeachment, so punters clearly don't think that House speaker Nancy Pelosi will allow him to be impeached.

Betfair has also launched another market on Trump's exit date that extends until 2025. In this case, a 2021 exit date (the date he'd leave if he lost the next election) is currentlythe most favoured outcome at 2.06 (48.5%), followed by 2025 (the date he'd depart if he served a full second term) at 2.6 (38.4%). Of the irregular departure dates, 2020 has the shortest odds at 10.5 (9.5%). Of all the above bets, the one that I'd recommend is the 2.06 on him to depart in 2021.

Recommended

Inflation: now we really have something to worry about
Inflation

Inflation: now we really have something to worry about

We’ve been worrying about a sharp rise in inflation for years, says Merryn Somerset Webb – now, we finally have something to worry about.
21 Jan 2022
US inflation still shows no sign of fading
US Economy

US inflation still shows no sign of fading

Annual US inflation hit 7% in December, its highest since 1982, while core inflation rose to 5.5%. That suggests high price rises are going nowhere so…
21 Jan 2022
Barry Norris: investing for a post-pandemic world
Investment strategy

Barry Norris: investing for a post-pandemic world

Barry Norris, manager of the Argonaut absolute return fund, explains what the investment landscape looks like in a post pandemic world, with the end o…
21 Jan 2022
Latest issue
Investments

Latest issue

Latest issue of MoneyWeek magazine
21 Jan 2022

Most Popular

Ask for a pay rise – everyone else is
Inflation

Ask for a pay rise – everyone else is

As inflation bites and the labour market remains tight, many of the nation's employees are asking for a pay rise. Merryn Somerset Webb explains why yo…
17 Jan 2022
US inflation is at its highest since 1982. Why aren’t markets panicking?
Inflation

US inflation is at its highest since 1982. Why aren’t markets panicking?

US inflation is at 7% – the last time it was this high interest rates were at 14%. But instead of panicking, markets just shrugged. John Stepek explai…
13 Jan 2022
Interest rates might rise faster than expected – what does that mean for your money?
Global Economy

Interest rates might rise faster than expected – what does that mean for your money?

The idea that the US Federal Reserve could raise interest rates much earlier than anticipated has upset the markets. John Stepek explains why, and wha…
6 Jan 2022