Features

Betting on politics: the odds of a Labour election victory

Political betting expert Matthew Partridge weighs up the odds on a Labour victory in forthcoming elections.

943-Labour-634

95426979

2017 Getty Images

Last week, I suggested that you bet on Labour getting between 20% and 40% of the vote in the forthcoming European elections (if they end up taking place). This week we're going to look at who will win the most seats.

At the moment, Paddy Power and Ladbrokes are both offering 4/6 (60%) on Labour coming out on top. While both bookies have Nigel Farage's Brexit Party as second favourites, Ladbrokes is offering a slightly more generous 13/8 (38%). The best odds for those convinced that the Conservatives will do well is 14/1 (6.6%) with Paddy Power.

On the betting markets, Betfair punters seem more convinced about a Labour victory, with Betfair putting it at 1.43 (70%), with the Brexit Party at 2.57 (38.6%). They put the Conservatives at 18 (5.6%), behind even the original Ukip at 16.5 (6%). Interestingly, Smarkets offers the best odds of the lot on Labour, putting it at 1.85 (53.7%), though with only £583 traded so far, the market isn't quite liquid enough for punters to take advantage of this price.

With the Tories in disarray, the contest boils down to a straight fight between Labour and the Brexit Party. While Farage's group may benefit from some Conservative voters being angry at Theresa May, the fact that Ukip is also taking part will split away some of the anti-Europe vote. Note also that, even at the peak of Farage's popularity in 2014, Ukip only came slightly ahead of Labour. So I'd recommend you take the 4/6 on Labour winning most seats.

Recommended

Just how green is nuclear power?
Energy

Just how green is nuclear power?

Nuclear power is certainly very clean in terms of carbon emissions, but what about the radioactive waste produced as a byproduct? It’s not as much of …
22 Jan 2022
Inflation: now we really have something to worry about
Inflation

Inflation: now we really have something to worry about

We’ve been worrying about a sharp rise in inflation for years, says Merryn Somerset Webb – now, we finally have something to worry about.
21 Jan 2022
Barry Norris: investing for a post-pandemic world
Investment strategy

Barry Norris: investing for a post-pandemic world

Barry Norris, manager of the Argonaut absolute return fund, explains what the investment landscape looks like in a post pandemic world, with the end o…
21 Jan 2022
Latest issue
Investments

Latest issue

Latest issue of MoneyWeek magazine
21 Jan 2022

Most Popular

Ask for a pay rise – everyone else is
Inflation

Ask for a pay rise – everyone else is

As inflation bites and the labour market remains tight, many of the nation's employees are asking for a pay rise. Merryn Somerset Webb explains why yo…
17 Jan 2022
Temple Bar’s Ian Lance and Nick Purves: the essence of value investing
Investment strategy

Temple Bar’s Ian Lance and Nick Purves: the essence of value investing

Ian Lance and Nick Purves of the Temple Bar investment trust explain the essence of “value investing” – buying something for less than its intrinsic v…
14 Jan 2022
US inflation is at its highest since 1982. Why aren’t markets panicking?
Inflation

US inflation is at its highest since 1982. Why aren’t markets panicking?

US inflation is at 7% – the last time it was this high interest rates were at 14%. But instead of panicking, markets just shrugged. John Stepek explai…
13 Jan 2022