Can the world’s biggest emerging market weather a global slowdown?

While many Western markets have been on the slide this year, Brazil has held its own. But could the bulls be getting carried away.

While many Western markets have been on the slide this year, Brazil has held its own. It has gained around 33% in dollar terms from its mid-January low and the benchmark Bovespa index, having exceeded its December record last week, is marginally up this year. Brazil is now the world's largest emerging market, valued at $500bn, having eclipsed its sagging Chinese counterpart last week.

Investors have been impressed by the improvement in Brazil's macroeconomic fundamentals over the past few years. GDP growth should expand by 4.8% this year after slightly faster growth last year, according to Goldman Sachs. Brazil boasts a trade surplus and large foreign exchange reserves, external debt is falling, inflation has been tamed and interest rates are at record lows. Domestic consumption is gathering momentum amid rising wages; bank lending grew by an annual 27% in the year to December, and retail sales are expanding at their fastest pace in seven years, says Bloomberg.com.

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