Betting on politics: Labour to win the Newport West by-election

Political betting expert Matthew Partridge sees Newport West sticking with Labour.


Two week ago, I tipped that you bet on Labour winning the Newport West by-election, due on4 April. I still think that this is a good bet, especially since you can now get slightly better odds of 1/6 (83%) on Labour winning with Ladbrokes though, as usual, if you've already taken my advice, don't bet any more money. Ladbrokes is also running an additional market on Labour's share of the vote.

Ladbrokes thinks that the most likely outcome is Labour getting between 40% and 50% of the vote, offering 5/4 (44.4%). The next most likely outcome is between 50% and 60% of the vote, with 7/4 (36%) available. It's also offering 5/1 (16.7%) on Labour getting between 30% and 40%. Those who are very optimistic about Labour's chances can get 10/1 (9.1%) on more than 60%; those who think Labour will do unexpectedly badly can take a punt on it getting less than 30% of the vote at 16/1 (5.8%).

Subscribe to MoneyWeek

Become a smarter, better informed investor with MoneyWeek.

My guess is Labour will win with a reduced share of the vote. In three out of the past four general elections Labour's percentage share of the vote in Newport West has been in the 40s. Labour just managed to get above 50% at the last election, but its polling ratings have slipped since then.

A delayed Brexit will probably see some protest votes going to Ukip's Neil Hamilton; a successful vote for PM Theresa May's withdrawal agreement will do the same for the Lib Dems. Although this won't be nearly enough to change the outcome, I'd suggest you take the 5/4 (44.4%) on Labour getting between 40% and 50%.



Investment strategy

How the fear of death affects our investment processes

Many of our investment decisions are driven by one simple fact: the knowledge that, one day, we will be dead. Here, in an extract from his new book, J…
2 Jan 2020

The good investments of the 2010s – and the bad

John Stepek takes a look back on which investments did well and which did badly in the decade that’s about to come to an end.
26 Dec 2019

How long can the good times roll?

Despite all the doom and gloom that has dominated our headlines for most of 2019, Britain and most of the rest of the developing world is currently en…
19 Dec 2019

How to plan for the general election result

John Stepek looks at the potential outcomes of Thursday’s general election and explains what each would mean for markets – and what you can do to prot…
10 Dec 2019

Most Popular


What does the coronavirus crisis mean for UK house prices?

With the whole country in lockdown, the UK property market is closed for business. John Stepek looks at what that means for UK house prices, housebuil…
27 Mar 2020

Coronavirus: what it means for your mortgage or your rent

Ruth Jackson-Kirby looks at all the key questions for owners, renters and landlords affected by the coronavirus crisis.
29 Mar 2020
UK Economy

The UK’s bailout of the self employed comes with a hidden catch

The chancellor’s £6.5bn bailout of the self employed is welcome. But it has hidden benefits for the taxman, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
27 Mar 2020
Small business

Furlough: what does it mean and how does it affect me?

Many companies have “furloughed” employees after they have shut down because of the coronavirus. But what does furlough mean and how does the scheme w…
30 Mar 2020