Betting on politics: the race for London mayor

It’s 15 months before the next London mayoral election, due to be held in May 2020, and already both the bookies and the betting exchanges are starting to offer some markets on the poll.

933_MW_P09_P&E_Col

Sadiq Khan: Londoners like him

2017 Getty Images

It's 15 months beforethe next London mayoral election, due to be held in May 2020, and already both the bookies and the betting exchanges are starting to offer some markets on the poll.

The current mayor,Sadiq Khan, is, unsurprisingly, the favourite to win re-election. Paddy Power is offering odds of 3/10 (76.9%) on him. It is also offering 7/2 on Conservative Shaun Bailey (22.2%) and 50/1 (1.9%) on Sian Berry, the Green Party candidate.

Although Sadiq Khan has come under fire for the rise in knife crime, he is generally popular with Londoners. A December YouGov poll suggests that, on balance, he has a positive approval rating. The same poll suggested he would easily win in the first round, with 55% of the vote, and has a commanding 24 percentage point lead over Shaun Bailey on second preferences. Boris Johnson's two terms in office showthat it is possible for a Conservative to win in London, but the fact that Labour got 55% of the London vote in the 2017 general election shows that the Conservatives face an uphill climb.

Indeed, there seems little in the way of a Sadiq Khan win unless he decides not to run for mayor again. In that case, one of his deputies, such as Heidi Alexander (20/1), would be the favourite. But if Khan wanted to move back to Westminster politics, it would be very difficult for him to find a seat, so I think he will run. I'm going to suggest that you just take Paddy Power's offer on him being re-elected mayor at 3/10.

Recommended

The Burberry share price looks like a good bet
Trading

The Burberry share price looks like a good bet

The Burberry share price could be on the verge of a major upswing as the firm’s profits return to growth.
5 Oct 2022
Markets may have bounced, but this is not the end of the bear market
Stockmarkets

Markets may have bounced, but this is not the end of the bear market

Stocks are back on the rise, commodities and precious metals prices are up – even the pound has rebounded. But none of this is typical of bull markets…
5 Oct 2022
Sterling accelerates its recovery after chancellor’s U-turn on taxes
Currencies

Sterling accelerates its recovery after chancellor’s U-turn on taxes

The pound has recovered after Kwasi Kwarteng U-turned on abolishing the top rate of income tax. Saloni Sardana explains what's going on..
4 Oct 2022
The MoneyWeek Podcast with John Mills: why a weak pound is good for the UK
UK Economy

The MoneyWeek Podcast with John Mills: why a weak pound is good for the UK

In a special bonus mini-podcast, Merryn talks to John Mills, founder of consumer goods distributor JML, chair of Vote Leave and one of the Labour Part…
3 Oct 2022

Most Popular

Should you take a 25% tax-free pension lump sum in instalments?
Pensions

Should you take a 25% tax-free pension lump sum in instalments?

Taking out a 25% tax-free lump sum sounds appealing but it might not be the best way to manage your pension
30 Sep 2022
October’s Premium Bonds: how to check if you are a winner
Savings

October’s Premium Bonds: how to check if you are a winner

NS&I has added almost 110,000 more prizes to October’s Premium Bond draw – are you a winner?
4 Oct 2022
Section 75 refunds: protection for your credit card purchases
Credit cards

Section 75 refunds: protection for your credit card purchases

Under Section 75 of the Consumer Credit Act 1974, your credit card can give you extra protection when the goods or services you buy fall short of your…
23 Sep 2022