Advertisement

Betting on politics: the race for London mayor

It’s 15 months before the next London mayoral election, due to be held in May 2020, and already both the bookies and the betting exchanges are starting to offer some markets on the poll.

933_MW_P09_P&E_Col
Sadiq Khan: Londoners like him

It's 15 months beforethe next London mayoral election, due to be held in May 2020, and already both the bookies and the betting exchanges are starting to offer some markets on the poll.

The current mayor,Sadiq Khan, is, unsurprisingly, the favourite to win re-election. Paddy Power is offering odds of 3/10 (76.9%) on him. It is also offering 7/2 on Conservative Shaun Bailey (22.2%) and 50/1 (1.9%) on Sian Berry, the Green Party candidate.

Advertisement - Article continues below

Although Sadiq Khan has come under fire for the rise in knife crime, he is generally popular with Londoners. A December YouGov poll suggests that, on balance, he has a positive approval rating. The same poll suggested he would easily win in the first round, with 55% of the vote, and has a commanding 24 percentage point lead over Shaun Bailey on second preferences. Boris Johnson's two terms in office showthat it is possible for a Conservative to win in London, but the fact that Labour got 55% of the London vote in the 2017 general election shows that the Conservatives face an uphill climb.

Indeed, there seems little in the way of a Sadiq Khan win unless he decides not to run for mayor again. In that case, one of his deputies, such as Heidi Alexander (20/1), would be the favourite. But if Khan wanted to move back to Westminster politics, it would be very difficult for him to find a seat, so I think he will run. I'm going to suggest that you just take Paddy Power's offer on him being re-elected mayor at 3/10.

Advertisement
Advertisement

Recommended

Trading: catch this coach company
Trading

Trading: catch this coach company

Bus and coach operator National Express has expanded into promising markets abroad – and it looks cheap
28 Jan 2020
How the fear of death affects our investment processes
Investment strategy

How the fear of death affects our investment processes

Many of our investment decisions are driven by one simple fact: the knowledge that, one day, we will be dead. Here, in an extract from his new book, J…
2 Jan 2020
The good investments of the 2010s – and the bad
Stockmarkets

The good investments of the 2010s – and the bad

John Stepek takes a look back on which investments did well and which did badly in the decade that’s about to come to an end.
26 Dec 2019
Beyond the Brexit talk, the British economy isn’t doing too badly
Economy

Beyond the Brexit talk, the British economy isn’t doing too badly

The political Brexit pantomime aside, Britain is in pretty good shape. With near-record employment, strong wage growth and modest inflation, there is …
17 Oct 2019

Most Popular

Can Rishi Sunak save the economy with stamp duty cuts and half-price meal deals?
UK Economy

Can Rishi Sunak save the economy with stamp duty cuts and half-price meal deals?

John Stepek runs his eye over the chancellor's £30bn stimulus package and asks if it's enough to get the economy back on its feet after months of lock…
9 Jul 2020
An economics lesson from my barber
Inflation

An economics lesson from my barber

On reopening his shop after lockdown, Dominic Frisby’s barber doubled his prices. It’s all part of the post-Covid inflation process – and we’re going …
8 Jul 2020
What gold, bonds and tech stocks have in common
Stockmarkets

What gold, bonds and tech stocks have in common

"Risk off" or "safe haven" assets such as gold and government bonds have been doing well lately. But so have riskier tech stocks. That seems to defy c…
10 Jul 2020