A journalist friend, James Fergusson, recently visited the once-gorgeous art deco Montazat Al-Lido hotel on the Dead Sea's northern shore. In the 1920s, it was a cosmopolitan beach resort (think guests arriving by Imperial Airways sea planes). Today it is far from the beach; long-abandoned; and distinctly unglamorous. Yet it isn't entirely empty. From thick layers of dust in the lobby, James picked up a couple of books. One made him think of me: The Economics of the 1960s by Colin Clark, published by MacMillan and Co Ltd in London in 1942. Yes, a forecasting book and and one that should act as a salutary reminder to all writers to forecast as little as possible, even if John Maynard Keynes considers you a "bit of a genius" (and particularly, perhaps, in the middle of a world war).
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