Features

Betting on politics: will a Brexit deal be approved in 2018?

With Theresa May staring defeat in the face over her withdrawal deal, many punters are asking whether a deal will be approved this year at all.

925-May-2-634
Theresa May is running out of time

Last week we noted that Paddy Power was offering 1/4 (80%) on Theresa May's Brexit withdrawal agreement being voted down on 11 December. Since then the ground seems to have shifted further away from the prime minister thanks to the ongoing controversy over the publication of the full legal advice on the deal, and the loss of three House of Commons votes. As a result, it is not surprising Paddy Power has withdrawn its market on the 11 December vote.

Instead, Paddy Power has now shifted its focus onto whether a deal will be approved in 2018 at all. Specifically, you can get 1/7 (87.5%) on a deal not being passed this year and 4/1 (20%) on a deal being passed. Not to be outdone, Betfair is running a similar market with slightly better odds of 1.17 (85.4%) on no approval this year and 6.2 (16.1%) on a deal being approved. If you just want to bet on the outcome of the 11 December vote, Ladbrokes is offering 1/8 (89%) on the deal not being passed.

It's generally a good idea to avoid short odds unless you are extremely confident of the outcome. However, I just can't see how May (pictured) can get the deal through Parliament, either now or in the remaining weeks of the year. I'm also sceptical about the idea that the failure of the deal will cause a financial meltdown that will push parliament into changing its mind. So I'd bet on both the 11 December vote failing with Ladbrokes, and no approval in 2018 with Betfair.

Recommended

How to prepare your business for Brexit
Small business

How to prepare your business for Brexit

Whether we have a Brexit deal or not, new procedures for importers and exporters will apply from 1 January. Get your business ready now.
27 Nov 2020
Brexit begins: what do the UK and the EU want from a trade deal?
Brexit

Brexit begins: what do the UK and the EU want from a trade deal?

With Brexit now done, the trade talks can begin. But who wants what from a UK/EU trade deal, and how likely are they to get it?
3 Feb 2020
Why we won’t see a house-price crash in 2021
House prices

Why we won’t see a house-price crash in 2021

Lockdown sent house prices berserk as cooped up home-workers fled for bigger properties in the country. And while they won’t rise quite as much this y…
18 Jan 2021
A beginner’s guide to inflation – everything you need tko know
Inflation

A beginner’s guide to inflation – everything you need tko know

One of the most frequently mentioned topics in the news these days is inflation. But what exactly is inflation and how does it affect the economy and …
18 Jan 2021

Most Popular

Why we won’t see a house-price crash in 2021
House prices

Why we won’t see a house-price crash in 2021

Lockdown sent house prices berserk as cooped up home-workers fled for bigger properties in the country. And while they won’t rise quite as much this y…
18 Jan 2021
Prepare for the end of the epic bubble in US stocks
US stockmarkets

Prepare for the end of the epic bubble in US stocks

US stocks are as expensive as they’ve ever been. How can you prepare your portfolio for a bubble bursting?
18 Jan 2021
The best investment trusts to buy for 2021
Investment trusts

The best investment trusts to buy for 2021

Sectors ranging from emerging markets to student accommodation look poised to do well this year, says David Stevenson, as he picks the best investment…
19 Jan 2021