Betting on politics: will a Brexit deal be approved in 2018?

With Theresa May staring defeat in the face over her withdrawal deal, many punters are asking whether a deal will be approved this year at all.


Last week we noted that Paddy Power was offering 1/4 (80%) on Theresa May's Brexit withdrawal agreement being voted down on 11 December. Since then the ground seems to have shifted further away from the prime minister thanks to the ongoing controversy over the publication of the full legal advice on the deal, and the loss of three House of Commons votes. As a result, it is not surprising Paddy Power has withdrawn its market on the 11 December vote.

Instead, Paddy Power has now shifted its focus onto whether a deal will be approved in 2018 at all. Specifically, you can get 1/7 (87.5%) on a deal not being passed this year and 4/1 (20%) on a deal being passed. Not to be outdone, Betfair is running a similar market with slightly better odds of 1.17 (85.4%) on no approval this year and 6.2 (16.1%) on a deal being approved. If you just want to bet on the outcome of the 11 December vote, Ladbrokes is offering 1/8 (89%) on the deal not being passed.

Subscribe to MoneyWeek

Become a smarter, better informed investor with MoneyWeek.

It's generally a good idea to avoid short odds unless you are extremely confident of the outcome. However, I just can't see how May (pictured) can get the deal through Parliament, either now or in the remaining weeks of the year. I'm also sceptical about the idea that the failure of the deal will cause a financial meltdown that will push parliament into changing its mind. So I'd bet on both the 11 December vote failing with Ladbrokes, and no approval in 2018 with Betfair.




Brexit begins: what do the UK and the EU want from a trade deal?

With Brexit now done, the trade talks can begin. But who wants what from a UK/EU trade deal, and how likely are they to get it?
3 Feb 2020
Investment strategy

How the fear of death affects our investment processes

Many of our investment decisions are driven by one simple fact: the knowledge that, one day, we will be dead. Here, in an extract from his new book, J…
2 Jan 2020
Stock markets

The good investments of the 2010s – and the bad

John Stepek takes a look back on which investments did well and which did badly in the decade that’s about to come to an end.
26 Dec 2019

How long can the good times roll?

Despite all the doom and gloom that has dominated our headlines for most of 2019, Britain and most of the rest of the developing world is currently en…
19 Dec 2019

Most Popular


Gold is at its highest level in years – here’s how to invest

Gold's rise at a time when the dollar is unnervingly strong isn't unheard of – but it is curious. John Stepek explains what's going on, and what it me…
21 Feb 2020
Stocks and shares

Do you own shares in Sirius Minerals? Here’s what you need to do now

Mining giant Anglo American has proposed a cash takeover of Yorkshire-based minnow Sirius Minerals. Unhappy shareholders must decide whether to accept…
20 Feb 2020

Money Minute 24 February: house prices, unemployment and corporate results

Money Minute: previewing the week's most important economic and financial goings on, including the latest house price, and unemployment figures, and …
24 Feb 2020

Why investors shouldn’t overlook Europe

SPONSORED CONTENT - Ollie Beckett, manager of the TR European Growth Trust, tackles investor questions around Europe’s economic outlook and the conseq…
6 Nov 2019