Betting on politics: will a Brexit deal be approved in 2018?

published 7 December 2018

925-May-2-634 — Theresa May is running out of time

Last week we noted that Paddy Power was offering 1/4 (80%) on Theresa May's Brexit withdrawal agreement being voted down on 11 December. Since then the ground seems to have shifted further away from the prime minister thanks to the ongoing controversy over the publication of the full legal advice on the deal, and the loss of three House of Commons votes. As a result, it is not surprising Paddy Power has withdrawn its market on the 11 December vote.

Instead, Paddy Power has now shifted its focus onto whether a deal will be approved in 2018 at all. Specifically, you can get 1/7 (87.5%) on a deal not being passed this year and 4/1 (20%) on a deal being passed. Not to be outdone, Betfair is running a similar market with slightly better odds of 1.17 (85.4%) on no approval this year and 6.2 (16.1%) on a deal being approved. If you just want to bet on the outcome of the 11 December vote, Ladbrokes is offering 1/8 (89%) on the deal not being passed.

It's generally a good idea to avoid short odds unless you are extremely confident of the outcome. However, I just can't see how May (pictured) can get the deal through Parliament, either now or in the remaining weeks of the year. I'm also sceptical about the idea that the failure of the deal will cause a financial meltdown that will push parliament into changing its mind. So I'd bet on both the 11 December vote failing with Ladbrokes, and no approval in 2018 with Betfair.

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Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

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