Betting on politics: Good news from the US mid-term elections

published 16 November 2018

Earlier this week we received some good news. Previously we had all but written off our 11/10 bet on Kyrsten Sinema being elected senator for Arizona. However, it appears that we were a tad premature. A combination of postal and early votes means she has managed to overhaul Martha McSally's election night lead, and the Republican has now conceded. There's even a recount going on in the contest for Florida governor, though Andrew Gillum is unlikely to be as lucky in his contest.

This week we're going to look at the contest for the Democratic nomination in 2020. At the moment the most liquid market is on Smarkets, with £42,747 traded (compared with £24,749 on Betfair). The current favourite is California senator Kamala Harris, pictured, at 5.9 (16.9%), followed by Beto O'Rourke at 6.6 (15.2%), senator Elizabeth Warren at 8.6 (11.6%) and former vice-president Joe Biden at 10 (10%). Longer shots include independent senator Bernie Sanders at 13 (7.6%) and Cory Booker at 13.5 (7.5%).

You can't really write anyone off in the age of Trump, but we don't think that O'Rourke really has much chance. While he ran Ted Cruz much closer than you'd expect, he still lost. Despite his undoubted charisma, he's never been anything more than a junior congressman (a role he had to give up to run against Cruz). While he has a bright future ahead of him, it's very hard to see how he could be nominated for president. So we'd tip laying him at 7.6, which translates to a bet against him at 1.15.

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Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri