Advertisement

Betting on politics: Good news from the US mid-term elections

Earlier this week we received some good news. I had all but written off my bet on Kyrsten Sinema being elected senator for Arizona. However, it appears that I was a tad premature.

922_MW_P11_P&E_Col
Kamala Harris

Earlier this week we received some good news. Previously we had all but written off our 11/10 bet on Kyrsten Sinema being elected senator for Arizona. However, it appears that we were a tad premature. A combination of postal and early votes means she has managed to overhaul Martha McSally's election night lead, and the Republican has now conceded. There's even a recount going on in the contest for Florida governor, though Andrew Gillum is unlikely to be as lucky in his contest.

Advertisement - Article continues below

This week we're going to look at the contest for the Democratic nomination in 2020. At the moment the most liquid market is on Smarkets, with £42,747 traded (compared with £24,749 on Betfair). The current favourite is California senator Kamala Harris, pictured, at 5.9 (16.9%), followed by Beto O'Rourke at 6.6 (15.2%), senator Elizabeth Warren at 8.6 (11.6%) and former vice-president Joe Biden at 10 (10%). Longer shots include independent senator Bernie Sanders at 13 (7.6%) and Cory Booker at 13.5 (7.5%).

You can't really write anyone off in the age of Trump, but we don't think that O'Rourke really has much chance. While he ran Ted Cruz much closer than you'd expect, he still lost. Despite his undoubted charisma, he's never been anything more than a junior congressman (a role he had to give up to run against Cruz). While he has a bright future ahead of him, it's very hard to see how he could be nominated for president. So we'd tip laying him at 7.6, which translates to a bet against him at 1.15.

Advertisement
Advertisement

Recommended

Visit/trading/600685/trading-catch-this-coach-company
Trading

Trading: catch this coach company

Bus and coach operator National Express has expanded into promising markets abroad – and it looks cheap
28 Jan 2020
Visit/520181/how-the-fear-of-death-affects-your-investment-process
Investment strategy

How the fear of death affects our investment processes

Many of our investment decisions are driven by one simple fact: the knowledge that, one day, we will be dead. Here, in an extract from his new book, J…
2 Jan 2020
Visit/520060/the-good-and-the-bad-investments-of-2010s
Stockmarkets

The good investments of the 2010s – and the bad

John Stepek takes a look back on which investments did well and which did badly in the decade that’s about to come to an end.
26 Dec 2019
Visit/trading/spread-betting/601555/nikola-a-tesla-wannabe
Spread betting

Short electric-truck maker Nikola, the Tesla wannabe

Nikola, the electric-lorry maker, has yet to produce any trucks – and the share price looks ripe for a fall.
29 Jun 2020

Most Popular

Visit/investments/property/601606/house-prices-crash-uk-property-prices-falling-where-next
Property

House price crash: UK property prices are falling – so where next?

With UK property prices falling for the first time in eight years, are we about to see a house price crash? John Stepek looks at what’s behind the sli…
2 Jul 2020
Visit/economy/inflation/601584/the-end-of-the-bond-bull-market-and-the-return-of-inflation
Inflation

The end of the bond bull market and the return of inflation

Central bank stimulus, surging post-lockdown demand and the end of the 40-year bond bull market. It all points to inflation, says John Stepek. Here’s …
30 Jun 2020
Visit/investments/stockmarkets/601611/nasdaq-all-time-high-markets-and-the-real-economy
Stockmarkets

How can markets hit new record highs when the economy is in such a mess?

Despite the world being in the midst of a global pandemic, America's Nasdaq stock index just hit an all-time high. And it's not the only index on a bu…
3 Jul 2020