Betting on politics: a Senate battle in Arizona

This week, Matthew Partridge looks at Arizona, one of the key battlegrounds for the control of the US Senate.


This week I'm going to look at Arizona, one of the key battlegrounds for the control of the US Senate. With incumbent senator Jeff Flake not seeking re-election due to a low popularity rating, the contest is between Democrat Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Martha McSally. Ladbrokes has McSally as the favourite at 8/11, while offering evens on Sinema. Paddy Power offers slightly less generous odds on McSally of 4/6 (60%), but has better terms of 11/10 (47.6%) on Sinema.

Arizona has traditionally leaned towards the Republicans, thanks in part to the state's popularity with elderly retirees, who tend to be more conservative. In the past 17 presidential elections, the Democrats carried the state just once, when Bill Clinton was re-elected in 1996. But changing demographics mean that the gap between the two parties has narrowed, as shown by the fact that Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton there by just over 3% in the presidential election two years ago.

Subscribe to MoneyWeek

Become a smarter, better informed investor with MoneyWeek.

Sinema has tried to appeal to the centre ground, while McSally has targeted the Republican base. Sinema's tactics seem to be working better, with 11 of the 14 latest polls putting her ahead. McSally is now attacking Sinema for some comments about people joining the Taliban that she made in 2003 and this could shift some voters, but it probably won't be enough to overcome Sinema's lead. So I'd recommend betting on Sinema to win with Paddy Power.



Investment strategy

How the fear of death affects our investment processes

Many of our investment decisions are driven by one simple fact: the knowledge that, one day, we will be dead. Here, in an extract from his new book, J…
2 Jan 2020
Stock markets

The good investments of the 2010s – and the bad

John Stepek takes a look back on which investments did well and which did badly in the decade that’s about to come to an end.
26 Dec 2019

How long can the good times roll?

Despite all the doom and gloom that has dominated our headlines for most of 2019, Britain and most of the rest of the developing world is currently en…
19 Dec 2019

Why Wall Street has got the US economy wrong again

The hiring slowdown does not signal recession for the US economy. Growth is just moving down a gear, says Brian Pellegrini.
25 Oct 2019

Most Popular

UK Economy

Britain has a new chancellor – get ready for a major spending splurge

The departure of Sajid Javid as chancellor and the appointment of Rishi Sunak marks a change in the style of our politics. John Stepek explains what's…
14 Feb 2020

Money Minute Friday 14 February: The latest from RBS, Britain's state-owned bank

Today's Money Minute previews results from RBS – Britain’s state-owned bank – and from pharma giant AstraZeneca.
14 Feb 2020

Living on a houseboat: the pros and cons of a floating home

Living on a houseboat sounds romantic and peaceful. But it’s not as straightforward as it looks, says Nicole Garcia Merida
14 Feb 2020

Is 2020 the year for European small-cap stocks?

SPONSORED CONTENT - Ollie Beckett, manager of the TR European Growth Trust, on why he believes European small-cap stocks are performing well.
12 Feb 2019