Betting on politics: the senatorial contest in West Virginia

Senator Joe Manchin will have a tough fight on his hands if he wants to get re-elected, says Matthew Partridge.

Dr Matthew Partridge
By
published
in Features

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Joe Manchin: ahead in polls
(Image credit: 2017 Getty Images)

Over the past week, thiscolumn has had twosuccesses and one failure. The victory of theSocial Democrats in the Swedish elections meant that both my tip to lay the Sweden Democrats, and my suggestion that you should bet on the Social Democrats to get most seats, paid off. It also briefly looked like my tipon Donald Trump visiting Ireland during his first term was also going to win. However, while it hasn't been definitively cancelled, itnow seems likely to bepostponed.

Turning back to America, one interesting midterm race is the senatorial contest in West Virginia. Over thepast two decades West Virginia has moved from being Democratic-leaning to strongly Republican, thanks inpart to perceptions that the GOP is more sympathetic to the coal industry. Donald Trump romped home in 2016, winning nearly 70% of the vote and sweeping every county. However, in 2010 former governor Joe Manchin managed to get elected as senator, in an otherwise dismal year for the Democrats.

Six years on from thatupset victory, many people speculated that Manchin would have atough fight on his hands if he wanted to get re-elected. But his combination of populist economics and social conservatism has resonated enough for him to enjoy a comfortable lead against the Republican challenger, Patrick Morrisey. I think that Manchin is likely to hang on, so you should take Paddy Power's 8/13 (61.9%), on a Democratic victory in November.

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Dr Matthew Partridge
Dr Matthew Partridge
Shares editor, MoneyWeek

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri

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