Advertisement
Features

Betting on politics: battling for the Riksdag

With the Swedish elections coming up, Matthew Partridge looks at who is odds-on favourite to win.

911-Riksdag-634
Sweden: voting next week

A week on Sunday (9 September) Sweden will vote in parliamentary elections. Three parties are in contention: the incumbent Social Democrats (who have led 16 out of the past 21 governments since World War II), the far-right Swedish Democrats and the Moderate Party (the Swedish equivalent of the Conservatives). At the moment, the best bookies' odds on who will get the most seats are Ladbrokes's 4/6 (60%) on the Social Democrats, Paddy Power's 6/4 (40%) on the Swedish Democrats and its 18/1 (5.2%) on the Moderate Party.

Advertisement - Article continues below

Seats in the Riksdag, the Swedish parliament, are allocated almost perfectly proportionally, so it boils down to which party will get the most votes nationally. Earlier in the summer the Swedish Democrats enjoyed a mini surge and briefly took the lead from the Social Democrats in polls. But they have since fallen back and are now tied with the Moderate Party for second place, 5%-7% behind the Social Democrats.

The Swedish Democrats have clearly gained ground since 2014, due to the controversy over the number of refugees entering Sweden. However, many of their voters seem to be supporting them in order to register a protest vote, and don't want them to become the largest party. Back in June I said you should lay the Swedish Democrats (bet against them being the largest party). I'm now going to recommend that you also take Ladbrokes's 4/6 on the Social Democrats to win.

Advertisement
Advertisement

Recommended

How the fear of death affects our investment processes
Investment strategy

How the fear of death affects our investment processes

Many of our investment decisions are driven by one simple fact: the knowledge that, one day, we will be dead. Here, in an extract from his new book, J…
2 Jan 2020
The good investments of the 2010s – and the bad
Stockmarkets

The good investments of the 2010s – and the bad

John Stepek takes a look back on which investments did well and which did badly in the decade that’s about to come to an end.
26 Dec 2019
How long can the good times roll?
Economy

How long can the good times roll?

Despite all the doom and gloom that has dominated our headlines for most of 2019, Britain and most of the rest of the developing world is currently en…
19 Dec 2019
The charts that matter: gold finally sets a new record high 
Global Economy

The charts that matter: gold finally sets a new record high 

As gold surges past its previous high, John Stepek looks at how it's affected the charts that matter most to the global economy.
1 Aug 2020

Most Popular

BP has slashed its dividend – and markets love it
Income investing

BP has slashed its dividend – and markets love it

BP has bowed to the inevitable and cut its dividend in half – and its share price promptly rose. John Stepek explains what it means for shareholders …
4 Aug 2020
Listed companies are dying out, and that could have serious consequences
Stockmarkets

Listed companies are dying out, and that could have serious consequences

Private equity is taking over from public stockmarkets as the biggest provider of capital to companies. That’s bad for investors and bad for society a…
3 Aug 2020
Gold hits the big $2,000 level – are Aim miners about to play catch up?
Gold

Gold hits the big $2,000 level – are Aim miners about to play catch up?

With the price of gold shooting through $2,000 an ounce, the yellow metal looks unstoppable. Things are so bullish, even Aim-listed junior gold miners…
5 Aug 2020