Betting on politics: battling for the Riksdag

published 31 August 2018

911-Riksdag-634 — Sweden: voting next week

A week on Sunday (9 September) Sweden will vote in parliamentary elections. Three parties are in contention: the incumbent Social Democrats (who have led 16 out of the past 21 governments since World War II), the far-right Swedish Democrats and the Moderate Party (the Swedish equivalent of the Conservatives). At the moment, the best bookies' odds on who will get the most seats are Ladbrokes's 4/6 (60%) on the Social Democrats, Paddy Power's 6/4 (40%) on the Swedish Democrats and its 18/1 (5.2%) on the Moderate Party.

Seats in the Riksdag, the Swedish parliament, are allocated almost perfectly proportionally, so it boils down to which party will get the most votes nationally. Earlier in the summer the Swedish Democrats enjoyed a mini surge and briefly took the lead from the Social Democrats in polls. But they have since fallen back and are now tied with the Moderate Party for second place, 5%-7% behind the Social Democrats.

The Swedish Democrats have clearly gained ground since 2014, due to the controversy over the number of refugees entering Sweden. However, many of their voters seem to be supporting them in order to register a protest vote, and don't want them to become the largest party. Back in June I said you should lay the Swedish Democrats (bet against them being the largest party). I'm now going to recommend that you also take Ladbrokes's 4/6 on the Social Democrats to win.

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Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

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