Betting on politics: battling for the Riksdag

With the Swedish elections coming up, Matthew Partridge looks at who is odds-on favourite to win.

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Sweden: voting next week
(Image credit: ullstein bild - wolterfoto)

A week on Sunday (9 September) Sweden will vote in parliamentary elections. Three parties are in contention: the incumbent Social Democrats (who have led 16 out of the past 21 governments since World War II), the far-right Swedish Democrats and the Moderate Party (the Swedish equivalent of the Conservatives). At the moment, the best bookies' odds on who will get the most seats are Ladbrokes's 4/6 (60%) on the Social Democrats, Paddy Power's 6/4 (40%) on the Swedish Democrats and its 18/1 (5.2%) on the Moderate Party.

The Swedish Democrats have clearly gained ground since 2014, due to the controversy over the number of refugees entering Sweden. However, many of their voters seem to be supporting them in order to register a protest vote, and don't want them to become the largest party. Back in June I said you should lay the Swedish Democrats (bet against them being the largest party). I'm now going to recommend that you also take Ladbrokes's 4/6 on the Social Democrats to win.

MoneyWeek

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Dr Matthew Partridge
MoneyWeek Shares editor