Betting on politics: US midterm elections

In less than four months’ time, America will go to the polls across the country in the midterm elections. Matthew Partridge weighs the odds on the possible winners.

Dr Matthew Partridge
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published
in Features

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Cynthia Nixon: an upstart for governor of New York
(Image credit: © 2018 Pacific Press)

In less than four months' time, America will go to the polls across the country in the midterm elections. Until now the only active markets have been those on control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, as well as a market on whether Andrew Cuomo will be able to fend off a challenge from the upstart Cynthia Nixon as New York governor. However, Betfair's markets on the 35 Senate races that will take place this autumn are finally starting to attract some punters.

Even if Trump's ratings are looking slightly less dire than they were a few months ago, I'm still bullish on the Democrats' chances. I recommend that you take the 1.15 (87%) on the Democrats in Delaware. Not only is this a state that Hillary Clinton carried comfortably two years ago, but the incumbent Senator Thomas Carper has an approval rating of 58%. The Republicans' lack of confidence is shown by the fact that they haven't been able to attract any top-quality candidates.

Pennsylvania should also be relatively straightforward for the Democrats. Even though Trump narrowly managed to carry the state at the last election, its senator Bob Casey has had consistent leads of around 15% in the polls over his opponent, Lou Barletta. I therefore think that the offered odds of 1.19 (84%) on Betfair are generous, and you should snap them up.

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Similarly, in Wisconsin Democrat Tammy Baldwin has double-digit polling leads against the two potential Republican challengers, which should see her through. I'd therefore bet on the Democats winning this race at 1.29 (78%).

Dr Matthew Partridge
Dr Matthew Partridge
Shares editor, MoneyWeek

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri

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