This week we're going to take another look at Ladbrokes' markets on next month's local council elections. As you may remember a few weeks ago (issue 887), I tipped the Conservatives to retain control of Westminster council. They have held since it was created in 1964, and currently control three-quarters of the seats. While the odds that Ladbrokes are offering have narrowed slightly from 4/7 (63.6%), you can still get 2/5 (71.4%), so if you haven't bet on it yet, it is still worth doing so.
On the other hand, if the Conservatives lose only two seats then they will lose overall control. From looking at previous elections, I'd say that Labour will probably gain around three seats, the Lib Dems at least one, with the possibility of one or two extra. I'd therefore bet on both no overall control (NOC) at evens (50%) and a Labour gain at 10/1 (9.1%). This gives you combined odds of 59.1% on the Tories losing control. In this case you should split a £10 betting unit by putting £8.46 on NOC and £1.54 on Labour.
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