Betting on politics: An unlikely victory

It's starting to look like Democrat Conor Lamb has pulled off a victory few thought possible in Pennsylvania.

Dr Matthew Partridge
By
published
in Features

887-Saccone-634

Rick Saccone is refusing to concede defeat
(Image credit: 2018 Getty Images)

On Tuesday, two of our bets came due but it looks as though both were duds. Neither Stephen Bush nor Rachel Sylvester won political commentator of the year at the Press Awards (the award went to John Harris of The Guardian).

As for the special election in Pennsylvania's 18th district, Republican Rick Saccone is refusing to concede defeat, pinning his hope on absentee and disputed ballots, but it looks as though Democrat Conor Lamb has pulled off a victory that seemed unlikely only a fortnight ago. The only consolation is that Lamb's victory suggests a Democratic wave is building that could see them gain control of the House of Representatives, which we tipped last year.

Looking ahead, Ladbrokes is now running a book on the results of the UK local council elections. The prices on offer suggest that the Conservatives are going to do badly. I'm not convinced. The polls show that nationally the Tories are level pegging with Labour, or just behind, not that different from the position at the general election. Indeed, all this talk of a Tory apocalypse may well be a sneaky way of lowering expectations, so when the results turn out better than predicted, they can claim to have done well.

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As a result, I suggest you put some money on the Conservatives to hold Westminster at 4/7 (63%). After all, the council has been firmly Conservative since it was formed in 1964. I also think the Lib Dems will easily retain control of Sutton Council, which they currently dominate, with 45 seats. So I'd suggest taking the 8/11 (73%) that's on offer for them to do so.

Dr Matthew Partridge
Dr Matthew Partridge
Shares editor, MoneyWeek

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri

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