Advertisement
Features

Betting on politics: Trump bounces back

Matthew Partridge suggests one long-term bet to take over the next three years.

880-Trump-634
Will we be waving Donald Trump off in 2020?

This content is subject to copyright.

Donald Trump seems to be making a comeback. Despite the recent furore over Michael Wolff's book on his dysfunctional presidency, there are signs that his popularity is on the rise. His approval rating is now around 40%, compared with the 35% of a few months ago.

The opinion-poll gap between Republicans and Democrats in the run-up to November's mid-term elections seems to be narrowing. And the Russia investigation now seems less of an immediate threat: the Betfair odds of Trump leaving office before the end of his first term have widened to 2.28 (43.8%).

Advertisement - Article continues below

This isn't a huge surprise. The American economy is doing well, with unemployment at 4.1%, the lowest level since December 2000. There is even evidence that wages, which have been stagnant in real terms for decades, are starting to tick up, while the stockmarket has soared since his inauguration. Of course, Trump isn't directly responsible for any of these developments. Still, there is a lot of evidence that the state of the economy has a major impact on election results, especially where incumbent presidents are concerned.

So, is it worth betting on him being re-elected? At the moment the best odds that you can get on a Trump 2020 election victory are Paddy Power's 5/2 (28.5%). I don't think this is particularly generous. Trump is still deeply unpopular in the country at large, with Democrat voters highly motivated, and I can't see that changing over the next three years. There is also the strong possibility that the Republican establishment will want to get their revenge for 2016 by supporting a credible primary challenger.

While I don't particularly like tying my money up for three years, this week I suggest that you take Betfair's 1.9 (52.6%) on a Democrat winning in 2020. I'd also take Ladbrokes 50/1 (2%) on Mitt Romney likely to run for a Senate seat in Utah in November clinching the Republican nomination in 2020. I've put £2 on each.

Advertisement
Advertisement

Recommended

Visit/520181/how-the-fear-of-death-affects-your-investment-process
Investment strategy

How the fear of death affects our investment processes

Many of our investment decisions are driven by one simple fact: the knowledge that, one day, we will be dead. Here, in an extract from his new book, J…
2 Jan 2020
Visit/520060/the-good-and-the-bad-investments-of-2010s
Stockmarkets

The good investments of the 2010s – and the bad

John Stepek takes a look back on which investments did well and which did badly in the decade that’s about to come to an end.
26 Dec 2019
Visit/519858/how-long-can-the-good-times-roll
Economy

How long can the good times roll?

Despite all the doom and gloom that has dominated our headlines for most of 2019, Britain and most of the rest of the developing world is currently en…
19 Dec 2019
Visit/516758/beyond-the-brexit-talk-the-british-economy-isnt-doing-too-badly
Economy

Beyond the Brexit talk, the British economy isn’t doing too badly

The political Brexit pantomime aside, Britain is in pretty good shape. With near-record employment, strong wage growth and modest inflation, there is …
17 Oct 2019

Most Popular

Visit/investments/commodities/industrial-metals/601401/money-printing-infrastructure-base-metals-copper
Industrial metals

Governments’ money-printing mania bodes well for base metals

Money is being printed like there is no tomorrow. Much of it will be used to pay for infrastructure projects – and that will be good for metals, says …
27 May 2020
Visit/investments/investment-strategy/601389/are-you-a-permabear-three-red-flags-to-watch-out-for
Investment strategy

Are you a permabear? Three red flags to watch out for

Contrarian investors are often seen as bearish because the market tends to go up over time. But if that bearishness goes too deep, you risk seriously …
26 May 2020
Visit/economy/eu-economy/601422/heres-why-investors-should-care-about-the-eus-plan-to-tackle-covid-19
EU Economy

Here’s why investors should care about the EU’s plan to tackle Covid-19

The EU's €750bn rescue package makes a break-up of the eurozone much less likely. John Stepek explains why the scheme is such a big deal, and what it …
28 May 2020