In early December last year (issue 823 to be precise), I looked at five big trends we thought would shape 2017. Making forecasts particularly such short-term ones is a mug's game, of course. But having made them, it's only fair to look at how they panned out.
Our first prediction was that the bond bull market was over, with 2017 set to mark a major turning point, helped by increased fiscal stimulus from a Donald Trump administration. It still seems likely that summer 2016 saw the lows for bonds. However, the path to reflation this year has not been smooth, with Trump achieving little, and his tax plan only now juddering through the US political system. And while central banks have switched their focus to tightening, they're doing so at a leisurely pace. As a result, US Treasury yields have yet to breach the 3% mark as we predicted.
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