In early December last year (issue 823 to be precise), I looked at five big trends we thought would shape 2017. Making forecasts particularly such short-term ones is a mug's game, of course. But having made them, it's only fair to look at how they panned out.
Our first prediction was that the bond bull market was over, with 2017 set to mark a major turning point, helped by increased fiscal stimulus from a Donald Trump administration. It still seems likely that summer 2016 saw the lows for bonds. However, the path to reflation this year has not been smooth, with Trump achieving little, and his tax plan only now juddering through the US political system. And while central banks have switched their focus to tightening, they're doing so at a leisurely pace. As a result, US Treasury yields have yet to breach the 3% mark as we predicted.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
-
Will “Liberation Day” strike again?Donald Trump’s 90-day tariff pause comes to an end on 9 July. Can we expect further market turmoil?
-
Israel claims victory in the '12-day war' with IranDonald Trump may have announced a ceasefire in the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, but what comes next depends on what happens internally in Iran
-
How capitalism has been undermined by poor governanceEditor's letter Capitalism’s “ruthless efficiency” has been undermined by poor governance, a lack of competition and central banks’ over-enthusiastic money printing, says Andrew Van Sickle.
-
The biggest change in the last 17 years – the death of the “Greenspan put”Editor's letter Since I joined MoneyWeek 17 years ago, says John Stepek, we’ve seen a global financial crisis, a eurozone sovereign debt crisis , several Chinese growth scares, a global pandemic, and a land war in Europe. But the biggest change is the death of the “Greenspan put”.
-
Things won't just return to normal – that's not how inflation worksEditor's letter You might think that, if inflation is indeed “transitory”, we just need to wait and everything will return to “normal”. But this is a grave misunderstanding of how inflation works, says John Stepek.
-
Car hire and the strangeness of the post-pandemic economyEditor's letter A global shortage of hire cars and unusually high hotel occupancy rates sum up the post-pandemic global economy in a nutshell, says Merryn Somerset Webb, with enhanced demand meeting restricted supply.
-
Everything is getting more expensive – including moneyEditor's letter Investors are about to start feeling rather more pain, says Merryn Somerset Webb – from the rising price of money.
-
We may be heading for recession – and it will be no ordinary recessionEditor's letter Just as the downturn in 2020 was not a typical recession. the next downturn could be very different too, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
What companies should be prioritising this decadeEditor's letter In a world beset by uncertainty, companies should be prioritising slack over efficiency, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
Inflation could soon start to hurtEditor's letter Inflation is not going away. And with people's wages not keeping up, things are going to start to hurt, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
