Germany is heading for turbulence

German stocks rose in September as Chancellor Angela Merkel’s centre-right CDU party looked on course to secure a fourth term in office. But once she had won, they slipped.

Andrew Van Sickle
By
published
in Features

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Victory for Merkel now she must build a colourful coalition
(Image credit: Credit: dpa picture alliance / Alamy Stock Photo)

It was a classic case of "buy the rumour, sell the fact". German stocks rose in September as Chancellor Angela Merkel's centre-right CDU party looked on course to secure a fourth term in office. But once she had won, they slipped.The CDU undershot expectations, implying a period of "unstable government", says Olaf Storbeck on Breakingviews. Merkel will have to govern with the free-market Liberals (FDP) and the leftist Greens. "The colourful coalition's life expectancy is open to question."

But while the FDP's euroscepticism could thwart France's plans for further eurozone integration, the three-party coalition may give Germany the kick it needs, says The Economist's Kaffeeklatsch blog. The Greens want "progress towards electric cars and renewable energy"; the FDP insists on cutting red tape.

Even if the coalition lasts, however, the long-term outlook is discouraging, says Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in The Daily Telegraph. Germany faces a Japan-style demographic squeeze. The workforce has already "flattened" and is set to shrink by 200,000 a year early next decade "under any plausible scenario for immigration". What's more, Germany's industry "may have invented the proverbial spark plug but has been left behind by the information. revolution".

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Broadband speed is behind Turkey's. Investment in "outdated" infrastructure is lacklustre. The car industry appears to have snoozed through the advent of the electric car. China's voracious appetite for German machine tools and capital goods is ebbing. China is also moving up the "technology ladder" and starting to compete with Germany in some export markets. The "German economic super cycle", says Evans-Pritchard, is over.

For now, however, the rally in the Dax has room to run. Its 30 constituents earn 70% of their revenues overseas, reflecting the economy's skew towards exports. With global growth at a five-year high, and demand in the eurozone finally on the rise, says Ulf Sommer in Handelsblatt, it's no wonder Dax operating profits jumped by a third in the second quarter, reaching a new quarterly record of €39bn. Turnover reached an all-time high of €344bn.

The mid-caps, which like their British counterparts have more domestic exposure, are doing "particularly well, with superior growth and profitability", as Benjardin Gartner of Union Investment told the Financial Times. German GDP growth is at a three-year high while global growth has risen. Throw in still-reasonable valuations, and the bull market won't end just yet.

Andrew Van Sickle
Andrew Van Sickle
Editor, MoneyWeek

Andrew is the editor of MoneyWeek magazine. He grew up in Vienna and studied at the University of St Andrews, where he gained a first-class MA in geography & international relations.

After graduating he began to contribute to the foreign page of The Week and soon afterwards joined MoneyWeek at its inception in October 2000. He helped Merryn Somerset Webb establish it as Britain’s best-selling financial magazine, contributing to every section of the publication and specialising in macroeconomics and stockmarkets, before going part-time.

His freelance projects have included a 2009 relaunch of The Pharma Letter, where he covered corporate news and political developments in the German pharmaceuticals market for two years, and a multiyear stint as deputy editor of the Barclays account at Redwood, a marketing agency.

Andrew has been editing MoneyWeek since 2018, and continues to specialise in investment and news in German-speaking countries owing to his fluent command of the language.

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