Trading: stick with oil
Matthew Partridge's bet on the oil price is becoming increasingly frustrating.

The crude-oil rollercoaster continues. After surging by more than $5 to $56 a fortnight ago, it has now given up most of its gains. Indeed, at one point it nearly hit our new stop-loss price of $50.99. The reason for this fall was data that showed US stocks of crude oil unexpectedly increasing. This suggests that American shale oil producers are responding to any cuts in the production of crude oil, such as those agreed by Russia and Saudi Arabia, by increasing production.
I've become increasingly frustrated by the performance of this trade, which I first recommended in January (Issue 828). It's not just the fact that it is now around $343 in the red but also the fact that I'm beginning to suspect that the fundamentals of the trade don't really support a rise in the price. While I'm going to give it another fortnight before I make a definite decision, if there isn't any noticeable improvement then I'm going to seriously think about closing it out, because there are more productive opportunities out there.
On a happier note, gold continues to do well with its price around $1,263 per ounce. At £7 per $1, this means that the profits on it almost perfectly balance the losses that I've made on the oil trade. Looking ahead, recent weak US economic data is likely to discourage the US Federal Reserve from rapidly raising interest rates. In turn, this should help gold by reducing the upward pressure on the dollar.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
As a result, I'm more than happy to let this trade run on for the foreseeable future, though of course I'm sticking with the stop loss of $1,175, just in case something happens that causes it to drop. As I've noted before, the evidence suggests that gradually raising the stop-loss on winning trades is a good way to ensure that you keep at least some of your winnings.
Sign up for MoneyWeek's newsletters
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.
He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.
Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.
As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.
Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri
-
The MoneyWeek Readers' Choice Awards 2025
MoneyWeek Awards The MoneyWeek Readers' Choice Awards celebrate the products and services that help you make, keep and spend your money. Find out more about this year's awards.
By MoneyWeek Published
-
8 of the best houses for sale with home cinemas
Houses for sale with home cinemas – from a modern oast-house style property in Kent to a house in Buckinghamshire with Dolby sound and bespoke seating
By Natasha Langan Published