Betting on politics: The French election

published 24 March 2017

17-3-24-Le-Pen-634 — Marine Le Pen is in second place

Interest in the French presidential election is running high, with £7.8m traded on Betfair alone. Both the bookmakers and the betting markets have the centrist Emmanuel Macron firmly in the lead. Indeed, after a strong performance in the latest presidential debate, his odds on Betfair have shrunk to 1.54, giving him an implied 64.9% chance of moving into the lyse Palace by May.

Things are not so bright for Franois Fillon, however. The erstwhile frontrunner may have managed to avoid being dumped by his party, and nominations have now closed, so it's going to be almost impossible to replace him now. However, he continues to be submerged by scandal, with the latest allegations claiming that he was paid for arranging a meeting between Putin and a Lebanese businessman. The upshot is that he is now trailing firmly in third place at 8.4 (11.9%).

Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right National Front, is in second place at 4.5 (22.2%), suggesting that there are still people who think that she has a reasonable chance of winning. However, she has made little progress in polls recently, and may even come second in the first round to Macron. Indeed, her odds have slipped sharply from the 30% chance that Betfair gave her only a month ago, let alone the highs that immediately followed Donald Trump's election as US president in November.

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There have been so many twists and turns that I would be wary of betting on Macron, even though the gap between him and Fillon in the first round polls is now seven points. However, if you haven't bet against Le Pen, I'd advise you to do so now (though don't make a second bet against her). Even the troubled Fillon still enjoys a comfortable lead over Le Pen in the head-to-heads, while Macron is miles ahead. However you look at it, a low-risk return of 26.9% over six weeks is pretty good.