Three scenarios for Britain’s post-Brexit future

published 23 March 2017

170324-brexit-b — Theresa May will trigger Article 50 on 29 March

"Winning was easy, young man. Governing's harder"

Hamilton, written by Lin-Manuel Miranda

When he decided to hold the EU referendum, David Cameron hoped for a comfortable victory. Even if it turned out to be close, the June date meant that that the long summer holidays, dominated by the football and the Olympics, would have allowed any passions generated by the campaign to die down. By the time parliament restarted in September, and markets resumed major activity, the referendum would seem like a distant memory, leaving him free to focus on building a "legacy". Of course, he didn't have any plan for what would happen in the event of defeat, as shown by his resignation on the morning after the voter.

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Naturally, David Cameron wasn't the only one who was hit for six by the result. Indeed, it's become clear that many of the Leave campaign didn't have a clue about what to do in the event of a victory. Days after the vote, Boris Johnson attracted derision for a newspaper column that implied that UK would retain the status quo apart from ditching most European regulations. So what are the options and how much political support do they have?

Soft Brexit

Since the majority of MPs, including Theresa May, the favourite for the Conservative leadership, supported Remain, a Norway-style deal would seem to command the most support across the political spectrum. Despite its flaws, it would also retain most of the immediate benefits while allowing the UK to ditch some of the unpopular areas, like agricultural and fisheries policies. Polls suggest that enough leavers support it to give it a majority. Indeed, a YouGov poll a fortnight before the vote showed that 57% of voters would support this, with only 24% opposing it.

So, what's the catch? The one big problem is that EEA membership involves accepting freedom of movement. Since immigration was at the heart of the Leave's campaign, opponents of any deal could cry foul. In her pitch for the Conservative Party leadership, Theresa May promised to introduce controls on freedom of movement. While an EEA style deal could probably win a second referendum, few politicians want to run the risk, at least not immediately. This means that the current consensus is "Norway-Plus" EEA membership plus controls over migration. Whether Europe is willing to offer this deal is another issue.

A looser trade deal with the EU

"WTO Rules": the UK to be treated like any other country

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri