Silver will bounce back

Silver rose strongly in the first half of 2016, but has since slipped from more than $20 an ounce to around $17. But next year should be a different story

Andrew Van Sickle
By
published
in Features

Silver rose strongly in the first half of 2016, but has since slipped from more than $20 an ounce to around $17. But next year should be a different story, says Rhiannon Hoyle in Barron's. Mined supply declined this year from 2015's record, and according to HSBC's James Steel, it could keep sliding. Silver is mined as a byproduct of other metals, and production from gold and lead mines has been falling. On the demand front, silver looks set to benefit from a pick-up in industrial demand, which accounts for half of overall demand. Silver is used in sectors ranging from automobiles to medicine. It is a key ingredient in solar panels, where demand is expected to climb by 11%.

The improved economic outlook stems partly from Donald Trump's plans to reflate growth, and a key element of this reflation, as we have often pointed out, is likely to be inflation. "Silver is one of the best things to have if you expect inflation in the long term," says Moe Zulfiqar on LombardiLetter.com. Over the past 46 years, US inflation has risen by 506%, while silver has done twice as well.

Silver is a monetary metal investment demand comprises the other half of the total and is therefore often seen as a cheaper store of value and safe haven than gold. As the market is smaller than gold's, it tends to amplify gold's movements in either direction. That means it also stands to benefit from bouts of uncertainty, of which there will probably be plenty in 2017. A renewed flare-up of the eurozone crisis, instability in China, or Trump-induced protectionism could give silver an additional fillip.

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Andrew Van Sickle
Andrew Van Sickle
Editor, MoneyWeek

Andrew is the editor of MoneyWeek magazine. He grew up in Vienna and studied at the University of St Andrews, where he gained a first-class MA in geography & international relations.

After graduating he began to contribute to the foreign page of The Week and soon afterwards joined MoneyWeek at its inception in October 2000. He helped Merryn Somerset Webb establish it as Britain’s best-selling financial magazine, contributing to every section of the publication and specialising in macroeconomics and stockmarkets, before going part-time.

His freelance projects have included a 2009 relaunch of The Pharma Letter, where he covered corporate news and political developments in the German pharmaceuticals market for two years, and a multiyear stint as deputy editor of the Barclays account at Redwood, a marketing agency.

Andrew has been editing MoneyWeek since 2018, and continues to specialise in investment and news in German-speaking countries owing to his fluent command of the language.

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