Do elections move stocks?

The result of the EU referendum caused stocks to plunge and sterling to fall. So how much do US elections affect stockmarkets, asks Matthew Partridge.

The result of the EU referendum caused stocks to plunge and sterling to fall. Speculation about a second referendum, a new election and another vote in Scotland could also cause instability. However, it isn't the only major political event taking place this year. While attention is focused on Cameron, Corbyn and Johnson, the contest between Trump and Clinton for the White House is under way. So how much do US elections affect stockmarkets?

While the UK has traditionally had elections at irregular intervals, the US has had regular four-year presidential elections since 1792. This makes it relatively easy to look at the impact of the political cycle on the stockmarket. The consensus is that stock returns tend to be lower in the first two years of a president's term, and higher in the second half.

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Dr Matthew Partridge
Shares editor, MoneyWeek

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri