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Which Draghi will we get today – nice or nasty?
All eyes will be on the European Central Bank today as Mario Draghi tries again to boost the eurozone's flagging economy. He has to surprise the markets, says John Stepek – but how?
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Join more than 165,000 subscribers and keep yourself informed with latest financial news, insights and expert analysis to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Join more than 165,000 subscribers and keep yourself informed with latest financial news, insights and expert analysis to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
And I have to say, I'm bursting with curiosity as to what they'll do.
The eurozone economy is still pretty sclerotic. And irritatingly for Mario Draghi, his main target the euro itself has clawed back ground against both the pound and the dollar.
This will annoy Draghi because the reality is that the only way he can have any impact on the "real" economy is by weakening the single currency.
He can't force the banks to lend, because they're still bust. He can't be as indiscriminate with his money printing as perhaps he'd like to be, because the Germans in particular don't like it and who can blame them?
So that leaves the euro as his key target.
The thing about markets is this: if you want your actions to change prices, then you have to surprise them. You have to beat (or underperform) expectations in some way.
Markets will always price in a given outcome. If you simply stick to the path that markets are already pricing in, then the price won't change.
Mervyn King always understood this, what with his much-cited football metaphors about fooling defenders into thinking you're going one way or another, when in fact you're going in a straight line. But he was never that great at acting on it.
Draghi's different. He understands markets in his bones. He knows he has to deliver something surprising to get what he ultimately wants.
But which surprise will he spring?
Everyone's expecting interest rates in the eurozone to become even more negative. And they're also hoping for a bit more money to be pumped into the system. Capital Economics reckons there'll be a 0.2 percentage point cut in the deposit rateand an extra €20bn a month of asset purchases.
So Draghi could always decide to do nothing. That might seem odd. Expectations would be deflated. Markets would probably fall. The euro would strengthen.
But it would give him more firepower for next time. The more deflated market expectations get, the bigger the chance of pulling "shock and awe" out of the hat next time. Particularly if you need to encourage recalcitrant partners to allow you to act more aggressively.
So that's an option.
I'm not sure he'll take that though. Markets are still wobbly, and I suspect he doesn't want to give more credence to the "central bankers are out of ammo" myth.
So I'm guessing he'd rather over-deliver. But how?
The thing is, if I were a central banker right now, and I'd seen what negative rates have done in Japan, I'm not sure I'd be so keen to carry on down that road. I'm not sure that markets really trust negative rates. They seem to create as much of an incentive to hoard as they do an incentive to spend.
So I reckon if he can get it past the rest of them Draghi would be in favour of doing a lot more money printing, and dialling down the negative-rate talk.
I suspect markets would be much more positive about that too. They "get" quantitative easing. It's just more money to pump up asset prices. That's nice for anyone who owns those assets. And because you're printing more euros, the euro gets weaker too.
So if I was going to take a punt, that's what my expectations would be. But we'll soon find out. Meantime, I'm still holding part of my portfolio in eurozone stock markets.
Looking for income? Here's where to find it
I know income and dividends are foremost in the minds of many of you, and so this week we've taken a look at some of the highest-yielding stocks in the FTSE 100 and given our verdict on whether or not they can sustain their payouts in the longer run.
Meanwhile regular contributor David C Stevenson gives us another two tips for the small investment trust portfolio he's putting together, both of which happen to have solid yields and give exposure to unusual but important sectors of the market.
So if you're looking to add a bit of income welly to your portfolio, I'd keep an eye out for this issue.
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