Russia’s energy crunch
The oil and gas-dependent Russian economy shrank by almost 4% last year – and this year isn't shaping up any better.
Russia had a lousy 2015 and 2016 isn't shaping up to be much better. The economy, dependent on oil and gas exports, shrank by almost 4% last year. Due to the latest slide in oil prices, the central bank has just downgraded growth forecasts and predicts that the economy will spend another year in recession and grow only marginally in 2017.
As oil has plunged, the currency has too, hitting record lows against the dollar. This has driven up inflation to around 10%, eroding the value of people's pay packets: real wages fell by 9% last year. It also prevented interest-rate cuts by the central bank. As a result, rattled companies have stopped investing and consumers have stopped shopping. Retail sales fell by 15% year-on-year in December, a record slide. In addition, public spending has been squeezed because "the arithmetic of Russia's public finances is unforgiving", says The Economist.
The budget deficit climbs by about 1% of GDP for every $5 drop in the oil price. It is set to hit 7% this year. With the $70bn "rainy day fund" dwindling, the government has cut spending, undermining economic momentum. Foreign investors are turning tail. The worst of the energy crunch may be over, as President Vladimir Putin insists. "But for ordinary Russians, phase two will not seem much better."
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Andrew is the editor of MoneyWeek magazine. He grew up in Vienna and studied at the University of St Andrews, where he gained a first-class MA in geography & international relations.
After graduating he began to contribute to the foreign page of The Week and soon afterwards joined MoneyWeek at its inception in October 2000. He helped Merryn Somerset Webb establish it as Britain’s best-selling financial magazine, contributing to every section of the publication and specialising in macroeconomics and stockmarkets, before going part-time.
His freelance projects have included a 2009 relaunch of The Pharma Letter, where he covered corporate news and political developments in the German pharmaceuticals market for two years, and a multiyear stint as deputy editor of the Barclays account at Redwood, a marketing agency.
Andrew has been editing MoneyWeek since 2018, and continues to specialise in investment and news in German-speaking countries owing to his fluent command of the language.
-
Private school fees soar and VAT threat looms – what does it mean for you?
Rising private school fees could see more than one in five parents pull their children out of their current school. Before you remortgage, move house or look to grandparents for help, here’s what you need to know.
By Katie Williams Published
-
Best and worst UK banks for online banking revealed
When it comes to keeping your money safe, not all banks are equal. We reveal the best and worst banks for online banking when it comes to protecting your money from scams
By Oojal Dhanjal Published