Election 2015: Will Scotland become a one-party state?

published 30 April 2015

150430-snp — Nicola Sturgeon could take the whole of Scotland

Here's what the latest poll predicts the political map of Scotland will look like after 7 May:

That's right the Scottish National Party is set to win every single seat in Scotland on 7 May, according to a joint STV/Ipsos MORI poll.

In all, 54% of Scots say they will back Nicola Sturgeon's party, which currently holds a 34-point lead over Labour (20%). The Conservatives are a little further back (17%).

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The SNP has clearly been on course to take a huge number of seats from Labour in Scotland, but it's the first poll that has shown quite such an extraordinary result. Labour leader Ed Miliband has previously ruled out a coalition with the SNP, but if these poll results become reality, he'll be hard-pressed to form a government without them.

Jim Murphy, leader of Labour in Scotland, tried to put a brave face on the poll, declaring that it was good news for David Cameron. For their part, the Scottish Conservative party cheered the fact that their support had in fact increased in the poll by five percentage points. Deputy leader Jackson Carlaw argued: "If people want a strong Unionist party that can take on the SNP, they have to vote Scottish Conservative".

The SNP, for its part, remains amenable to a deal with Labour, with Sturgeon declaring that "if there is a hung Parliament, SNP members of Parliament will vote to stop a Tory government even getting off the ground".

MoneyWeek's election pundit Adrian Sykes isn't convinced that the SNP will get the clean sweep indicated by the poll: "[Alistair] Carmichael (Lib Dem) will retain Orkney, and the Tories will keep Dumfriesshire if nothing else". However, he adds, "the SNP looks on a roll".

Another poll released today undertaken by TNS and published in The Herald, shows record levels of support for Sturgeon across the country. The First Minister's approval rating of 33 was not only the highest of any party leader, but a record high for any TNS poll.

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Mischa graduated from New College, Oxford in 2014 with a BA in English Language and Literature. He joined MoneyWeek as an editor in 2014, and has worked on many of MoneyWeek’s financial newsletters. He also writes for MoneyWeek magazine and MoneyWeek.com.