Election 2015: Will Scotland become a one-party state?

The latest poll predicts the SNP will win every single seat in Scotland. Mischa Frankl-Duval looks at what that means.

150430-snp

Nicola Sturgeon could take the whole of Scotland

Here's what the latest poll predicts the political map of Scotland will look like after 7 May:

scotland-map-s

That's right the Scottish National Party is set to win every single seat in Scotland on 7 May, according to a joint STV/Ipsos MORI poll.

In all, 54% of Scots say they will back Nicola Sturgeon's party, which currently holds a 34-point lead over Labour (20%). The Conservatives are a little further back (17%).

The SNP has clearly been on course to take a huge number of seats from Labour in Scotland, but it's the first poll that has shown quite such an extraordinary result. Labour leader Ed Miliband has previously ruled out a coalition with the SNP, but if these poll results become reality, he'll be hard-pressed to form a government without them.

Jim Murphy, leader of Labour in Scotland, tried to put a brave face on the poll, declaring that it was good news for David Cameron. For their part, the Scottish Conservative party cheered the fact that their support had in fact increased in the poll by five percentage points. Deputy leader Jackson Carlaw argued: "If people want a strong Unionist party that can take on the SNP, they have to vote Scottish Conservative".

The SNP, for its part, remains amenable to a deal with Labour, with Sturgeon declaring that "if there is a hung Parliament, SNP members of Parliament will vote to stop a Tory government even getting off the ground".

MoneyWeek's election pundit Adrian Sykes isn't convinced that the SNP will get the clean sweep indicated by the poll: "[Alistair] Carmichael (Lib Dem) will retain Orkney, and the Tories will keep Dumfriesshire if nothing else". However, he adds, "the SNP looks on a roll".

Another poll released today undertaken by TNS and published in The Herald, shows record levels of support for Sturgeon across the country. The First Minister's approval rating of 33 was not only the highest of any party leader, but a record high for any TNS poll.

[cfsp key="election-15-footer-ad"]

Recommended

Why we should scrap the Budget
Budget

Why we should scrap the Budget

The yearly Budget, big set-piece of British politics, encourages the very worst from the government, says Matthew Lynn.
24 Oct 2021
Why fed-up workers are quitting their jobs
Economy

Why fed-up workers are quitting their jobs

Workers are leaving their jobs at an astonishing rate, especially in the US, leading to a shortage of workers. What will that mean for our economies? …
22 Oct 2021
Will the government’s green plans hit the price of your home?
House prices

Will the government’s green plans hit the price of your home?

UK house prices are still rising fast. But the government’s plan to reach net-zero carbon emissions could halt that – for some of us, at least. John S…
21 Oct 2021
From an age of plenty to an age of shortage
Economy

From an age of plenty to an age of shortage

We have emerged from the pandemic into a world where supply can’t meet demand, driving prices up. Merryn Somerset Webb looks at what's going on.
15 Oct 2021

Most Popular

How to invest as we move to a hydrogen economy
Energy

How to invest as we move to a hydrogen economy

The government has started to roll out its plans for switching us over from fossil fuels to hydrogen and renewable energy. Should investors buy in? St…
8 Oct 2021
Properties for sale for around £1m
Houses for sale

Properties for sale for around £1m

From a stone-built farmhouse in the Snowdonia National Park, to a Victorian terraced house close to London’s Regent’s Canal, eight of the best propert…
15 Oct 2021
How to invest in SMRs – the future of green energy
Energy

How to invest in SMRs – the future of green energy

The UK’s electricity supply needs to be more robust for days when the wind doesn’t blow. We need nuclear power, says Dominic Frisby. And the future of…
6 Oct 2021