Why the Tories will win at the polls

The Conservatives have emerged as the favourites to win May's general election, says Emily Hohler. But the real question is how well will they win.

"I know very well how foolish I'll look if I'm wrong", but I think the Tories are going to win this election, and "win well", says Matthew Parris in The Times. My grounds for thinking this may be "flimsy", but I believe the "polling evidence for a stalemate result is flimsy too".

The three big problems that pollsters always face strike me as more relevant than usual: namely, respondents who haven't made up their minds; respondents embarrassed to admit their affiliation; and those who have a last-minute change of heart in the polling booth. So far there is little interest in the election, "no confidence" in the Labour party and "no affection" for the Conservative party.

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Emily Hohler
Politics editor

Emily has worked as a journalist for more than thirty years and was formerly Assistant Editor of MoneyWeek, which she helped launch in 2000. Prior to this, she was Deputy Features Editor of The Times and a Commissioning Editor for The Independent on Sunday and The Daily Telegraph. She has written for most of the national newspapers including The Times, the Daily and Sunday Telegraph, The Evening Standard and The Daily Mail, She interviewed celebrities weekly for The Sunday Telegraph and wrote a regular column for The Evening Standard. As Political Editor of MoneyWeek, Emily has covered subjects from Brexit to the Gaza war.

Aside from her writing, Emily trained as Nutritional Therapist following her son's diagnosis with Type 1 diabetes in 2011 and now works as a practitioner for Nature Doc, offering one-to-one consultations and running workshops in Oxfordshire.