Ceasefire in Ukraine: Is the crisis over, or is it just another false dawn?

published 12 February 2015

150212-ukraine — Leaders met in Minsk to thrash out an agreement

This morning, Vladimir Putin announced that Russia has brokered a deal that will lead to a ceasefire in Ukraine and a possible settlement. Is this the end of the crisis, or another false dawn?

What's happened?

It calls for a ceasefire between Kiev and Russian-backed rebels in the east, starting Saturday night. At the same time, both countries will pull back heavily artillery up to 140km from the ceasefire line, which is based on the one agreed last September.

In the longer run the rebels will disband and allow the national army to take back control of the Russia-Ukraine border. In return they will be granted an amnesty, the blockade of the region will be lifted and it will be allowed a large degree of political autonomy.

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Which side does the deal favour?

However, there are fears that Russia will use it to stave off the threat of greater Western support for the central government. Indeed, some American politician have argued that the US should supply Ukraine with arms and even training (Obama has said that he remains open to the idea).

Kiev is also worried that the devolution of power contained within the deal will give the east a permanent veto on Ukraine joining the EU and Nato.

Will the deal hold?

The Guardian's Simon Tisdall notes that the Ukrainian government is already disputing the degree of autonomy that the deal contains. A similar agreement in September quickly collapsed after fighting resumes.

As Tisdall puts it, "the Minsk achievement looks fragile in the extreme. It is still very much in the making, the second beginning of a long, fraught process". And Andrew Higgins of the New York Times reports than many European diplomats doubt that Putin can be trusted.

What about Ukraine's economy?

The IMF has provided $4.6bn in support, but it has insisted on economic reforms, including the lifting of fuel subsidies. This has pushed up the cost of living and led to an increase in inflation.

According to unofficial estimates GDP fell by nearly 7% last year and is expected to fall by a further 3% in 2015. However, the IMF has now approved additional funding of $17.6bn, which should help cushion the pain before the economy returns to growth.