America's property fizz will go flat

Bullish sentiment is on the rise in the US housing market. But the recovery looks shaky.

We are seeing "a turn in the UShousing market", says Gary Wolfer of Univest Wealth Management. Bullish sentiment has mounted amid recent signs of stabilisation. Sales of existing homes rose for the fourth month in a row in July, leaving them 5% up year-on-year. The widely monitored Case-Shiller index tracking prices in 20 cities has now risen for two successive months after falling for 34.

But the recovery looks shaky. For starters, the sales picture isn't as healthy as it looks; around 30% are "distressed sales" of houses that have been foreclosed on. Then there's the supply overhang. In July the number of homes on the market rose by 7.3%. So at the current pace of sales it would take 9.4 months to sell off existing stocks far above the 7.5 months' supply historically consistent with stable prices, says Capital Economics. "The inventory overhang needs to reduce much further before prices can start rising on a sustained basis."

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