25th May 2010
It's time to buy back into BP!
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The markets are in freefall. And suddenly investors are being panicked by problems from every corner of the globe.
Spanish banks are being bailed out. The Thai government is struggling to quell a bloody rebellion. And Kim Jong Il is doing his best to upset his neighbours to the south.
I have good news though this is not the end of the world.
Very soon now, investors are going to realise that the Greek debt crisis can be contained (for a while). And Kim Jong Il is just a drug-crazed pyschopath who likes a little attention.
In fact, I think this savage sell-off will prove a great entry point for going long on the FTSE. I'll let you now exactly when in a coming Events Trader.
But today I want to talk about another trade that investors are completely losing their head over - BP. Three weeks ago we got in too early on this stock. But I can't believe the drop we've seen since then.
If you haven't done so already, now is the time to buy into BP. Because I think we'll see a 27% gain from here.
How you could make a snap 27% gain on BP
In the three weeks since I recommended buying BP at 572p, we've seen the stock fall 15% - triggering our stop loss at 500p. In that time, millions of gallons of oil have leaked into the Gulf of Mexico. And recrimination against the group has only intensified.
But the facts haven't changed. BP are not the main culprits for this crisis. The platform was leased and operated from Transocean [RIG US] and the safety valve that failed on top of the oil well was designed and placed in situ by Halliburton [HAL US].
The cost of this crisis is also been completely blown out of perspective. According to a report issued today by UBS, the cost of the cleanup operation is put at $12bn but $21.3bn has already been wiped off its market capitalisation since the Deepwater Horizon went up in flames.
BP is not going to go bust! Even if the US imposes a massive fine, it will not go bust. This is a massive group that is now trading 6.3 times earnings and offers a dividend yield of 8.8% to boot.
That's why I'm recommending that you buy in at 485p. I maintain my target at 615p. Because I think this is a great opportunity to trade what is a hysterical reaction to BP's role in this crisis.
Before I go this week, just to note that our stop loss on Nokia also got triggered in the mass sell off in the markets. My apologies to those who suffered a loss here. Unfortunately, here is another great trade that got caught up in this rout.
Overall we were quite light in open positions heading into the recent turmoil. But I think that this volatility is going to provide a heap of great trading opportunities for us. In this kind of environment, you only have to get one right and you can almost forget about what the markets do for the rest of the year and just go on holiday.
I will be back with more updates and trading ideas next week. If you want to contact me you can contact me at my e-mail eventstrader@moneyweek.com
Riccardo Marzi
Events Trader
| Trader Portfolio |
| OPEN TRADES |
| Distressed Assets | ||||||
| Issue | Tip date | Company/ Asset | Reccomendation | Price then | Price now (25th May) | Gain (%) |
| EVT #2 | 19/05/2009 | Barclays XS0110537429 | Buy | 65 | 97.37p | 49.80 |
| EVT #2 | 19/05/2009 | Nationwide XS0284776274 | Buy | 48 | 73.13p | 52.35 |
| EVT #15 | 18/08/2009 | Barclays XS0205937336 | Buy | 60.7 | 70.88p | 16.77 |
| Merger - Risk Arbitrage | ||||||
| Issue | Date | Company/ Asset | Details | Price now (25th May) | Exp. Closing Date | Change (%) |
| EVT #30 | 24/11/2009 | Iberia (SM: IBLA); British Airways (LSE: BAY) |
Buy Iberia @ €2.02 Short-sell British Airways @ 204p Ratio IBLA 0.98: 1 BAY |
IBLA: €2.06; BAY: 184p |
Q4 2010 | 4.25% |
| Other Trades | ||||||
| Issue | Date | Type of Trade | Company/ Asset | Details | Price now (25th May) | Change (%) |
| EVT #28 | 10/11/2009 | Long | Dragon Oil (LSE: DGO) | Buy at 447p | 398p | -11% |
| EVT #32 | 08/12/2010 | Long | Readers Digest bond D | BUY ISIN US755267AF83 at 1.5c | $1.25 | -17% |
| EVT #52 | 04/05/2010 | *CLOSED Long |
Nokia | Buy at €9.04 Target around €10. Set stop loss at €8.40 | STOP LOSS TRIGGERED AT €8.40 | -7% |
| EVT #53 | 06/05/2010 | *CLOSEDLong | BP | BUY at 572p Target 615p. Set stop loss at 500p | STOP LOSS TRIGGERED at 500p | -13% |
| EVT #53 | 06/05/2010 | Long | BP | BUY at 485p Target 615p. | 485p | 0% |
| Watchlist | ||||||
| Issue | Date | Type of Trade | Company/ Asset | Details | Price now (25th May) | Change (%) |
| EVT #32 | 08/12/2009 | Long | ING (AMS: INGA) | Buy it if it falls below €5.40 | €5.95 | N/A |
| EVT #40 | 16/02/2010 | Long | ICAP (AMS: IAP) | Buy at 300p | 364p | N/A |
| EVT #43 | 09/03/2010 | Long | Marine Harvest (OL:MHG) | Buy it if it falls below 4.5 Kr | 5.06 Kr | N/A |
| CLOSED TRADES |
| Issue | Date | Type of trade | Company/ Asset | Details | Status | Gain (%) |
| EVT #2 | 19/05/2009 | Distressed asset | Lloyds XS0107228024 | Buy at 45-46 | Sold 10/11/09 at 88 | 91.0% |
| EVT #3 | 26/05/2009 | Merger- risk arbitrage | Wyeth (US: WYE) Pfizer (US: PFE) |
Buy Wyeth Short-sell Pfizer Ratio WYE 1 : 0.985 PFE |
Merger completed 15/10/09 | 8.8% |
| EVT #7 | 23/06/2009 | Merger- risk arbitrage | Schering Plough (US: SGP) Merck (US: MRK) |
Buy Schering-Plough Short-sell Merck Ratio SGP 1 : 0.5767 MRK |
Merger completed 03/11/09 | 5.9% |
| EVT #15 | 18/08/2009 | Distressed asset | HBOS XS0353590366 | Buy at 52 | Sold 10/11/09 at 99 | 90.3% |
| EVT #15 | 18/08/2009 | Distressed asset | RBS XS0193721544 | Buy at 65.4 | Sold 10/11/09 at 61 | -6.7% |
| EVT #16 | 25/08/2009 | Index Trading | iPath S&P 500 VIX (NYSE: VXX) | Bought at $55 - 56.50 | Sold at $43.70 on 27/10/09 | -22.6% |
| EVT #18 | 08/09/2009 | Distressed asset | RBS XS0102480869 | Buy at 75 | Sold 10/11/09 at 68 | -9.3% |
| EVT #19 | 15/09/2009 | Short | National Express | Short sell at 480p | Closed short at 390p 19/10/09 | 23% |
| EVT #20 | 29/09/2009 | Options Trading | Vodafone | Put option Strike 140 November 2009 @ 6p |
Sold at 10p 13/10/09 | 67% |
| EVT #20 | 26/05/2009 | Options Trading | FTSE 100 | Put option Strike 5,100 November 2009 @ £1.40 |
Sold at £2.25 02/10/09 | 60% |
| EVT #27 | 04/11/2009 | Options Trading | Cadbury | December 2009 Put, Strike 24p / December 2009 Put, Strike 740p | Sold 10/11/09 for negligible gain | 0% |
| EVT #35 | 12/01/2010 | Options Trading | Cadbury | BUY the Cadbury's March Put option, strike price 760p at 23p | CLOSE POSITION AT 3 | -87% |
| EVT #37 | 26/01/2010 | Long | FTSE 100 | BUY the FTSE at 5,205 (midpoint) | Closed at 5,155 02/02/10 | Loss of 55 points |
| EVT #12 | 28/07/2009 | Merger | Sun Micro | Buy Sun Micro only: 50% at $9.24; 50% at $9.15 (so average price $9.19) | Merger completed | 3.37% |
| EVT #22 | 06/10/2009 | Merger | Xerox | XRX: $8.88 | Merger Completed | 5.5% |
| EVT #28 | 10/11/2009 | Long | BNI | Buy BNI at $97.60 | Merger Completed | 2.7% |
| EVT #23 | 13/10/2009 | Long | Ladbrokes (LSE: LAD) | Buy at 140p; double up if hits 120p: TARGET 180p | 147p | 5% |
| EVT #43 | 23/02/2010 | CLOSE | VT Group | Buy at 673p | 762p | 13% |
| EVT #35 | 12/01/2010 | Merger | *CLOSED* Buy 3Com at $7.64 | $7.90 (details on HP deal to follow) | Q2 2010 | 3.40% |
| EVT #49 | 16/04/2010 | Short | Ryanair | *CLOSED* Short at €3.90 (stop loss at €3.90) | €3.90 | 0% |
| EVT #46 | 30/03/2010 | Long | Arriva (LSE: ARI) | *CLOSED* Buy at 680p | 764.5p | N/A |
| Closed average % gain | 12.3% |
Your capital is at risk when you invest in shares, never risk more than you can afford to lose. The share recommended is denominated in a currency other than sterling. The return from such shares may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. Please seek independent personal advice if necessary.
Spread betting is not suitable for everyone - ensure you fully understand the risks involved and never risk more than you can afford to lose. Prices can move rapidly against you and resulting losses may be more than your original stake or deposit.
Figures are calculated using the closing mid-prices on the date on which shares are first recommended. All gains are gross, and returns will be affected by dividend payments, dealing costs and taxes. Past performance and forecasts are not reliable indicators of future results. Commissions, fees and other charges can reduce returns from investments.
Profits from share dealing are a form of income and subject to taxation. Tax treatment depends on individual circumstances and may be subject to change in the future. Editors or contributors may have an interest in shares recommended.
Events Trader portfolio is not intended to represent the exact prices at which you could get in or out of a share. Our reference price is the price of our recommended shares at the time we wrote the recommendation. Sometimes readers will achieve better entry/exit prices; sometimes worse. This portfolio represents the value of our recommendations at the time our material is published.
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