The bearish billionaires
Three billionaire investors, who see an end to the bull market in US stocks.
As the S&P marches on and on, experienced investors are increasingly concerned that it is running out of oxygen. One is Sam Zell, a real-estate billionaire nicknamed the Grave Dancer' for his knack of profiting from distressed assets. He's worried about the gulf between the stock market's performance and the underlying economic fundamentals.
In the latest earnings season, says Zell, firms that disappointed the market mainly did so because their sales fell short of forecasts. That's a reflection of weak demand, which is hardly a hallmark of a thriving recovery with equities at record levels.
Part of the reason stocks are overinflated is that people have nowhere else to put their money amid rock-bottom interest rates. This makes the market look precarious, as the economic and geopolitical backdrop is uncertain."It's very likely that something has to give here," he concludes.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Meanwhile, George Soros has taken out put options insurance against a decline on an ETF tracking the S&P 500. The position is worth $2.2bn, or 17% of his total assets under management, says Tyler Durden on Zerohedge.com.
And Carl Icahn, the "poster-child of leveraged financial engineering", says he's nervous about US stocks. Then again, concludes Durden, investors should consider the possibility that the bearish billionaires are a contrarian indicator.
Sign up to Money Morning
Our team, led by award winning editors, is dedicated to delivering you the top news, analysis, and guides to help you manage your money, grow your investments and build wealth.
Andrew is the editor of MoneyWeek magazine. He grew up in Vienna and studied at the University of St Andrews, where he gained a first-class MA in geography & international relations.
After graduating he began to contribute to the foreign page of The Week and soon afterwards joined MoneyWeek at its inception in October 2000. He helped Merryn Somerset Webb establish it as Britain’s best-selling financial magazine, contributing to every section of the publication and specialising in macroeconomics and stockmarkets, before going part-time.
His freelance projects have included a 2009 relaunch of The Pharma Letter, where he covered corporate news and political developments in the German pharmaceuticals market for two years, and a multiyear stint as deputy editor of the Barclays account at Redwood, a marketing agency.
Andrew has been editing MoneyWeek since 2018, and continues to specialise in investment and news in German-speaking countries owing to his fluent command of the language.
-
Christmas at Chatsworth: review of The Cavendish Hotel at Baslow
MoneyWeek Travel Matthew Partridge gets into the festive spirit at The Cavendish Hotel at Baslow and the Christmas market at Chatsworth
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
Tycoon Truong My Lan on death row over world’s biggest bank fraud
Property tycoon Truong My Lan has been found guilty of a corruption scandal that dwarfs Malaysia’s 1MDB fraud and Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto scam
By Jane Lewis Published