Is political popularity a sure sign of an impending crash?

Popular governments should signal profitable markets for investors, says Matthew Lynn. But the opposite appears to be the case.

A new leader takes power. They restore order to a country and embark on an ambitious series of political reforms. The economy is expected to improve as businesses become more confident, investment increases, and the country becomes more competitive. Investors, not surprisingly, will pile in, hoping to ride the boom.

In fact, however, they will be making a mistake. According to a fascinatingnew study by Helios Herrera, Guillermo Ordoez and Christoph Trebesch, political popularity is the best single indicator that a market is about to crash. Instead of getting in, investors should be getting out of countries where political leaders are riding a wave of support.

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Matthew Lynn

Matthew Lynn is a columnist for Bloomberg, and writes weekly commentary syndicated in papers such as the Daily Telegraph, Die Welt, the Sydney Morning Herald, the South China Morning Post and the Miami Herald. He is also an associate editor of Spectator Business, and a regular contributor to The Spectator. Before that, he worked for the business section of the Sunday Times for ten years. 

He has written books on finance and financial topics, including Bust: Greece, The Euro and The Sovereign Debt Crisis and The Long Depression: The Slump of 2008 to 2031. Matthew is also the author of the Death Force series of military thrillers and the founder of Lume Books, an independent publisher.