No sooner had stock markets climbed back to record or multi-year highs late last week than they had another US-induced attack of vertigo. Technology stocks led the sell-off, with America's tech-heavy Nasdaq index losing almost 5% in three days. The world's 14 biggest internet companies have now lost 20% of their value in little more than a month.
The S&P 500 slipped into the red for the year early this week. Britain's FTSE 100 suffered its worst day in a month on Monday. Three UK e-commerce stocks, recently-listed Just Eat and AO World, plus Asos, fell by 6%-14% in two days.
What the commentators said
But tech bubble 2.0' isn't the only factor spoiling investors' risk appetite. China's slowdown, the increasingly tense stand-off in eastern Ukraine, and the US Federal Reserve's ongoing tapering aren't helping. Earnings forecasts have fallen, with S&P 500 first-quarter earnings expected to come in 3% below last year's tally.
MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
At the start of the year, 2% profit growth was expected. A rapid jump is unlikely any time soon. A key problem is that profit margins are already at a record high, leaving sales growth to power profits, and the US and global economy are only recovering gradually.
In cyclically adjusted terms (which takes a longer view of earnings), it is more than 50% overvalued compared to the long-term average.
Be afraid, said Lahart. Market sell-offs typically have an identifiable trigger, such as the release of a lousy piece of economic data. "Share prices crumbling just because prices have reached a point where investors can no longer stomach them can signal real trouble."
When the big bear market began in March 2000, after the first tech bubble burst, there was "no compelling cause".
-
Redundancy on the rise – how to manage a sudden drop in incomeUnemployment and redundancies are higher than a year ago, new figures show. We look at how to protect your finances if you face a sudden loss of income.
-
What is the ideal time to spend on the property market? How you could risk losing thousandsTime on the housing market matters – get an offer too quickly or too slowly and you’ll often find you have to settle for less than the asking price. What is the ideal time for a property to spend on the market?
