The best way to profit from any rebound in the gold price
2013 was a terrible year for gold. But it is now so widely loathed, it might just surprise people. Matthew Partridge picks the best punt to profit from a rise in the gold price.
2013 was a dire year for gold. It started the year at around $1,700 an ounce; by the end of June it had plunged to $1,200; after a late summer rally, it ended the year just a little above its low.
If you believe the City, worse is to come. Moody's is the latest firm to trash the metal, setting a price target of $1,100. Goldman is even more pessimistic, forecasting a drop to $1,050.
Now, we're happy to hang on to some gold as portfolio insurance. It's a great diversifier for your portfolio if things turn really bad. And if things keep improving and gold keeps going down well, the rest of your portfolio is doing well. That's the point of diversification.
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That said, gold is so widely loathed at the moment that we can see various reasons why it might do better than most people think this year. And if that's the case, any rebound could be very good for the one asset class that is even more hated than gold gold miners.
The big name investors have been dumping gold
This is where investors particularly high profile ones who have been moving in the opposite direction to the market throw in the towel. The bears turn bullish, and vice versa. However, they usually change course at just the wrong moment because when the last bull turns bearish, there's no one left to sell the market.
For the gold market, the most high-profile buyer has probably been hedge fund titan John Paulson. In 2010 he launched a gold fund. Last year its value fell nearly two-thirds, from around $1bn to $370m.
Not only has Paulson rebranded' the fund (to be fair to him, his other funds were extremely successful last year), he has also advised investors not to put any more money into it. He also slashed his other gold holdings in 2013.
He's not the only one. George Soros and Daniel Loeb (who runs the $14bn Third Point Hedge Fund) have also sold their holdings in the main gold exchange-traded fund. These moves at least suggest that we have seen some sort of capitulation'.
The return of the eurozone crisis
But the ECB's promise 18 months ago, that it will do everything possible to save the euro, seems to have convinced markets that everything will be OK. Interest rates for the high-debt countries have fallen, and the euro has actually gone up in value even although the ECB hasn't actually done anything much.
However, this state of affairs may not last. Weak lending and monetary data suggest that there is a real risk of deflation inflation is at a multi-year low. That's enough to have any central banker feeling jittery.
Meanwhile, after several years of austerity and recession, anti-euro sentiment is reaching a critical mass. In France, the far-right Marine Le Pen has experienced a surge in popularity. In Italy, the disgraced Silvio Berlusconi is re-emerging as an anti-Brussels populist.
And, as Matthew Lynn recently pointed out, the fact that Greece is now running a trade surplus makes it easier for the stricken country to bring back the drachma (or at least threaten to). While a breakup isn't the most likely scenario, the ECB could be forced to turn on the printing presses, which would push up the value of gold.
Asian consumers might get the go ahead to buy more gold
Demand in India, meanwhile, was so strong last year that the government was forced to outline punitive import tariffs and export restrictions, because of its impact on the trade balance.
Before the measures, India's gold imports were only second to its oil imports. But while the measures reduced official imports, they also led to a huge amount of smuggling. It also created a backlash. And that suggests the restrictions will be lifted soon as India's economy improves. That's likely to provide a big boost to global demand for gold.
Gold miners are very cheap
One company that looks very interesting is Medusa Mining (LSE: MML), a gold producer in the Philippines. Unlike most of its rivals, it is a low-cost producer, meaning it should keep turning a profit, even if the gold price falls further. It trades on a price/earnings ratio of 7.3. And it trades at a premium of only 3% to its net assets, compared with the 50-100% premiums of firms such as Ashanti and Randgold.
Metals and Miners is a regulated product issued by Fleet Street Publications Ltd. Your capital is at risk when you invest in shares, never risk more than you can afford to lose. Past performance and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future results. Please seek independent financial advice if necessary. Customer services: 0207 633 3600.
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Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.
He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.
As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.
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