Thursday preview: Olympic distraction to hit retail sales

UK retail sales data for August will include a 12-day period when the entire nation was apparently glued to the telly watching the Olympics.

Market expectations are for sales (including petrol) to have fallen 0.3% in August after rising 0.8% in July. The year-on-year (y/y) gain, however, is expected to widen to 3.0% from 2.8%.

Cash-and-carry retailer Booker issues a second quarter interim management statement, and Peel Hunt thinks the key will be a progress report on recently acquired rival Makro.

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Peel Hunt forecasts like-for-like (LFL) sales growth in non-tobacco goods will have quickened to 4% in the second quarter from 3.8% in the preceding quarter. LFL sales of tobacco are expected to be down 1% y/y, though that represents an improvement on the preceding quarter's 1.7% decline.

Fags maker Imperial Tobacco (IMPs) releases full-year figures which are expected to reveal sales of £7.96bn, profit before tax of £2.47bn, earnings per share (EPS) of 199.85p and a full-year dividend of 104.58p.

Panmure Gordon expects the company to report a volume decline in cigarette stick sales of around 2% y/y, though price increases should lead to a 3% or so increase in tobacco revenues.

"We forecast that tobacco revenues in constant currency will increase by c.3.5% (or 1.9% on a reported basis) also reflecting an improvement from the 3% reported in the 9 months to 30th June," the broker said.

The same broker has turned its eye towards online grocer Ocado, and thinks its third quarter (Q3) sales update is likely to disappoint. "Despite a slow start to Q3 due to the Bank Holidays around the Diamond Jubilee, Ocado (as of the interims) still expected to see accelerated sales growth in Q3 and Q4. Given the likely impact of the Olympics upon sales, this now looks unlikely, as it always did," predicts Panmure Gordon, which is a seller of the stock.

"We are looking for 13% sales growth in Q3, but this looks to have downside risk. We believe that Ocado continues to underperform its multichannel competitors," the broker said.

INTERIMS

BrainJuicer Group, Moss Bros Group, Norcon, Tawa

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Dragon Oil, First Quantum Minerals Ltd., Hochschild Mining, Mobeus Income & Growth Vct

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE

Royal Dutch Shell 'A', Royal Dutch Shell 'B'

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Bloomberg Consumer Confidence (US) (14:45)

Consumer Confidence Indicator (EU) (10:00)

Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)

Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)

Leading Indicators (US) (15:00)

Philadelphia Fed Index (US) (15:00)

Producer Price Index (GER) (07:00)

ANNUAL REPORT

NCC Group

IMSS

Booker, Ocado Group

AGMS

African Copper, Best of the Best, Games Workshop, GEONG International Ltd., NCC Group, New India Inv Trust, NWF Group, Supergroup, Trifast

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Imperial Tobacco Group

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

CBI Industrial Trends Surveys (11:00)

Internet Retail Sales (09:30)

Retail Sales (09:30)

JH