How two of our tips have fared

published 25 July 2013

Phil Oakley re-examines two of his share tips from last year to see how they have got on.

Fenner (LSE: FENR)

Despite having some good businesses, Fenner's profits are still heavily influenced by what's going on in the global mining industry. It is the world leader in supplying heavy duty conveyor belts to mining firms and has been hit by soft trading in its key Australian and American markets.

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Moreover, a slowdown in the Chinese economy last year saw less demand for Australian coal and iron ore. The US shale-gas boom weakened demand for coal there. It's no surprise that Fenner's customers bought fewer belts and profits fell heavily.

I continue to like Fenner's Advanced Engineered Products (AEP) business. It specialises in niche, problem solving products that are crucial to their customers in areas such as oil exploration, energy, medical devices, diesel engines and package handling. Here profits are more resilient as there is less competition and good growth prospects.

With a recovering mining sector, high oil prices and good prospects for AEP, Fenner's profits should start to grow again next year. On that assumption, the shares look cheap trading on 10.7 times August 2014 earnings, while offering a 3.5% yield with a growing dividend.

Verdict: buy

Telecom Plus (LSE: TEP)

June last year

Things get better still if the customer becomes a company distributor. This allows them to be paid commission for every new customer they sign up. The rewards can be big. If they become a distributor and one of their customers then becomes a distributor, they get some of their commission as well. It's not really surprising that there's a growing number of people making a good living out of this. It's also great for Telecom Plus, as it allows them to win customers cheaply and boost their profits.

Telecom Plus is still doing very well. Customer numbers are growing at 20% per year, while existing customers are buying more products. Profits are expected to grow by 15%-20% over the next couple of years. But the shares now look too expensive. When I tipped them at 707p, they were trading on just under 20 times earnings but offered a nice yield of 4.2%, as a large chunk of the profits gets paid out every year. Now they trade on nearly 30 times earnings with a yield of 2.7%. As good a business as Telecom Plus is, it's time to take profits.

Verdict: take profits

Phil spent 13 years as an investment analyst for both stockbroking and fund management companies.

After graduating with a MSc in International Banking, Economics & Finance from Liverpool Business School in 1996, Phil went to work for BWD Rensburg, a Liverpool based investment manager. In 2001, he joined ABN AMRO as a transport analyst. After a brief spell as a food retail analyst, he spent five years with ABN's very successful UK Smaller Companies team where he covered engineering, transport and support services stocks.

In 2007, Phil joined Halbis Capital Management as a European equities analyst. He began writing for Moneyweek in 2010.

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